African elections - just democrazy!
More than half a century ago European colonial powers started to cede control over their African colonies opening the door for independence. This move towards black majority rule was applauded by the US and the international community. However, with this handing of sovereignty back to African nations all that has really changed is that white minority rule has now been replaced by black minority rule, the new APARTHEID
It is a regrettable fact that in the intervening 50+ years since independence swept over the African continent, only on TWENTY-SEVEN occasions* have ruling parties lost in presidential/leadership elections in the 48 countries which comprise the land mass of Africa.
Though elections are held periodically in most African nations they are largely meaningless and rarely offer citizens the freedom to choose who leads them. This is because rulers/governing parties are addicted to power and are singularly adept at holding on to control through a combination of harassment of opponents, vote buying, ballot rigging, excluding opposition candidates from the ballot as well as getting the dead to vote! At the same time, the opposition is often fragmented meaning there is no single group to get right behind to try to lever change. And the former president of the Republic of Congo, Pascal Lissouba, publicly admitted such when he said that 'one does not organise elections to end up on the losing side.' Tanzanian Foreign Minister, Benjamin Memba, also owned up to this sham when he stated recently that 'in Africa, when it comes to elections, irregularities and errors are a given.'
Little wonder, then, that ruling elites are perpetuated in power no matter how poorly they govern for there is nothing to prevent them doing so. Certainly not the African Union, whose own constitution even espouses democracy and free elections, as it is controlled by all the heads of African governments who want to stay in power for as long as possible. And certainly not western governments who, although they preach to their African counterparts about the need for free and fair elections and are even happy to finance them, rarely take governments to task for the way they monopolise power. And certainly not the United Nations whose 193 members, the latest being South Sudan, may have signed the UN Declaration of Human Rights but which all too many prefer to ignore. As a result, in Africa, more governments are toppled through popular uprisings/military coups/ foreign interventions - potentially in April 2019 in Algeria and Sudan; in January 2016 in The Gambia; in October 2014 in Burkina Faso; in 2013 in Central African Republic and Egypt; in 2012 in Mali and Guinea-Bissau; in 2010 in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Niger; in 2009 in Madagascar and in 2008 in Guinea and Mauritania - than through the ballot box.
It is this unchallenged rule and the lack of censure from within or without which is the principal factor as to why, today, Africa is the home of many of the world's longest serving autocrats, some of whom have been in power for almost 40 years - Obiang Nguema in Equatorial Guinea since 1979 and Paul Biya in Cameroon since 1982. At the same time, dynasties are being established in Togo and Gabon, with sons taking over from fathers, which has led to the same families ruling these two nations since 1967 - more than half a century.
A survey of public opinion across Africa in April, 2015 showed that nearly 3 in 4 Africans want their presidents to serve no more than 2 terms in office. However, how many leaders care what their people think! Therefore, in order to get round this limiting procedure constitutional coup d'etats are starting to take place. In July 2015, in Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza bulldozed his way to serving as president for at least another 5 years by ignoring the constitution and 'winning' a ballot that the opposition boycotted. Since then a referendum in May 2018 found 73% of the electorate voting to allow Nkurunziza to stand for 2 more 7 year terms after his current mandate expires which could see him extend his 'reign' until 2034. The same happened in Rwanda and Congo Republic whilst in Uganda and Sudan members of parliament saved the citizens the trouble.
Now longevity of rule would not matter so much if these governments were inclusive with the goal of seeking to improve the lives of all of their people by delivering on economic growth, strong institutions of state, good governance, social welfare and human rights. However, the majority of regimes in the world's poorest continent by far, are more concerned with looking after the interests of their families and friends, amassing personal fortunes and selling off the country's natural resources to the highest bidder. No wonder then that the majority of Africans today are still subsistence farmers scratching a living from the soil as they have done since biblical times.
In some countries, though, a few green shoots of democracy have started to appear and ruling parties have relinquished power. But this has only happened in a few countries like Ghana, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Benin, Zambia, Senegal, Lesotho, Nigeria and just recently The Gambia and Liberia. And with freely elected governments in only 10 out of 48 nations after a period of half a century, the holding of these elections only seeks to give legitimacy to one party rule and is surely a waste of everyone's time, effort and money. For until economic progress leads to a strong middle class in each country, for the European Union and the US to continue to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting fatuous elections in most of Africa is just 'democrazy'. Instead the West would be far better off encouraging improved leadership in all developing countries through the targeting of overseas aid and practical support at the better governed countries.(see RECOMMENDATIONS)
Nevertheless, although the chances of change at the ballot box are few, for record purposes, just1WORLD will produce below a timetable of forthcoming leadership elections in African nations. As each country's election draws closer we shall show what happened in the previous election and present the main opposition candidates/parties in the contest about to be fought. After the election we shall give the result and report the findings of the international election observers which will undoubtedly be along the lines of that, although there were problems in certain areas, the election itself probably reflected the will of the people.
(Only 3 nations in Africa do NOT currently hold leadership elections - Eritrea, Morocco and Swaziland, the last two being ruled by monarchs. In Africa, men/women are allowed to vote at 18 in all countries except in Cameroon, Central African Republic and Gabon where the voting age is 21. However, in Sudan the voting age is 17)
NEXT LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2019
15 - brought forward from November 17 - Tunisia - President Beji
Essebsi (92), a major player in the country's transition to democracy,
decided to stand down in this election after one term arguing that someone
younger should take over. However, before this could happen he died on
July 25 and was replaced by Mohamed Ennaceur, speaker of the parliament.
Essebsi, representing the Nidaa Tounes Party, won a run-off in 2014 against
interim President Moncef Marzouki. Contenders:-
FUTURE LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2019
October 15 - Mozambique - Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, the Frelimo party president, will seek to win another 5 year term here after his initial victory in 2014. In 2014, at the final count, Frelimo had 57% of the votes cast ahead of Alfonso Dhlakama of Renamo with 37%. However, before this important test of popularity a row has broken out over the results of voter registration that seem to indicate a bias in favour of provinces that are historically in the camp of the ruling party. The oppostion has now called for an independent audit. Frelimo, the left-leaning party, has led the country since independence from Portugal in 1974 and, even with government corruption a hot topic, there is little chance of any change here in this desperately impoverished country. The Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), the main opposition party, will be represented by its leader Ossufo Momade who took over the party when Dhlakama died in May 2018. Daviz Simango, mayor of Beira and leader of the Democratic Movement of Mozambique, an earlier breakaway from Renamo, will also be in the race but is not expected to feature prominently. A second round will be held if no candidate reached 50% in round one. Parliamentary and provincial elections will happen on the same day.
October 31 - Botswana - President Lt General Dr Seretse Khama Ian Khama stood down after winning two terms on March 31, 2018. He handed power over to his vice-president Mokgweetsi Masisi on April 1, 2018. The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has held power since independence in 1966 but at the last election in 2014 the party secured less than 50% of the vote. The Botswana parliament has 63 seats of which 57 are filled through direct votes, there are 4 seats reserved for the majority party in parliament while the president and and attorney-general are ex-officio members. At the last election in 2014, although the BDP's share of the vote dropped below 50% for the first time, the party still managed to secure 37 of the 57 seats in parliament. With the BDP monopolising news coverage and with African governments past masters at retaining power it will be a major surprise if Masisi doesn't validate his position as prime minister in this election. However, former president Ian Khama has fallen out with his successor big time and has formed a new party - the Botswana Patriotic Front - which he heads up in all but name. Could make this election very interesting.
November 24 - Guinea-Bissau (postponed from 23 June - this failed state with a population of 1.6m is a hub of organised crime, drugs and people trafficking and its institutions exist in name only.) The current president, Jose Mario Vaz of the PAIGC, the dominant party, will undoutbedly stand again. In the parliamentary elections held in March, the PAIGC, led by former PM Domingos Pereira who was sacked by the president in 2015, won the day. However, the PAIGC did not win a majority. And a new party, MADEM - G15, made up of former PAIGC members now holds the balance of power. This has left a vacuum as Vaz refused the nomination of former political colleague Domingos Pereira as prime minister and no PM and government has been appointed. The situation is further aggravated by the president's five-year term ending on 23 June. Last time Vaz defeated Nuno Nabiam of the Party for Social Renewal in a run-off securing 62% of the votes. During the recent election campaign police seized an estimated 789kg of cocaine. Guinea-Bissau has experienced 8 military coups since 1980 and 5 since 2000. And so there must be every chance of another in the vacuum period leading up to this presidential election.
November - Namibia -
December - Mauritius -
December? - Algeria (postponed from July 4 and April 18) - President Abdelaziz Bouteflika (82), suffering the after affects of a stroke in 2013 and rarely seen in public, set out to govern this country for a fifth term. Bouteflika's close political entourage headed by his brother, his larger economic clientele favoured with graft and privilege, and his close relations with high military officers left far too much at stake to allow his exit. In 2014 he won with 82% of the vote. However, with ongoing mass demonstrations and strikes in several cities throughout the country he was forced to postpone this election and eventually conceded, with army backing, that it was time to step down as president. Abdelkader Bensalah, chairman of the upper house of parliament, became caretaker president for the 3 months until elections to be held in July. However, with only 2 candidates declared, both of whom did not meet the right criteria, the election was postponed again. The street demonstrations in many towns and cities across the country are relentless and Algeria could be on the verge of its own Arab Spring! Currently the interim president has set up a 6 member panel to oversee national dialogue and to fix a date for the presidential election aimed at ending months of political inertia.
May 2019 - Libya - (postponed) again due to organisational difficulties. General Khalifa Hafter, Libya's most powerful military commander and Faiez Serraj, head of the UN-backed government of national accord in the west of the country, have started to negotiate a peace deal raising hopes for an end to the 3 year civil war. Also at the talks brokered by President Macron in Paris were Aguilla Saleh Issa, parliament speaker based in Tobruk, who opposes the UN-backed administration and Khalid al-Mishri, head of the High Council of State, Libya's highest consultative body. All sides have agreed in principle to hold presidential along with parliamentary elections but there is worringly nothing in writing. There is also hope on an agreement on a unified army under Haftar. The UN had hoped that the Serraj government would unite the country but it has failed to secure the endorsement of the rival parliament in the east which backed Haftar. Libya has been torn apart by civil war since the overthrow and death of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 which led to the country being into east and west. With the current strife in and around the capital, Tripoli, it is looking like wishful thinking that any kind of election will be able to be held this year. The UN also wanted a delay to give Libyans firstly a forum to discuss their future followed by elections 'within months.'
October 2020 - Tanzania - President John Magufuli, nicknamed 'the bulldozer', was elected in 2015 with a promise to eradicate corruption and public mismanagment. Instead civil liberties and political rights have been curtailed. In 2015 Magufuli of the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party, which has held power since independence in 1961, won with 58.5% of the vote over former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa with 39%. The current leader of the opposition, Tundu Lissu, of the Chadema Party, was fortunate to survive after being shot several times by unknown attackers in 2017 and promises to return to Tanzania after 20 operations and nearly 2 years spent recovering in Belgium. His supporters are fearful though that he might not survive. The Magufuli government denies any links to the attacks.
Sometime in 2020 maybe - Somalia - this will be the first time in 50 years that a one-person/one vote election has taken place if it happens. Presidential elections in 2009, 2012 and 2017 were decided when 14,000 clan delegates voted in lawmakers who then elected a president.
February 2021 - Uganda - 33 year-old Bobi Wine, a pop star turned politician, has indicated that he will challenge President Museveni (74) in this election. Born Robert Kyagulanyi, the 6th child of the 4th wife of a Catholic yet polygamous father, he adopted his Christian name to pay homage to his idol Bob Marley and his surname to Wine 'because I shall probably get better with age.' The musician has been arrested several times and almost beaten to death as he has tried to win the support of the young who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Museveni's imperious rule. He also blames the West as being a partner in crime here. He faces though an uphill struggle to dislodge the incumbemt with charges linked to an alleged attack on the president's convoy last year. At the same time changes to the electoral laws appear designed to target him, including barring independent candidates from seeking allegiances with political parties.
July 2021 - South Sudan - (postponed from 2018) the last election was in 2011 when Salva Kir won a landslide victory in this country's first election. Since then civil war has erupted causing death and destruction forcing many to flee their homes all because of the sacking of Vice-President Riek Machar. At the same time 4.8 million people - half the population - are facing extreme hunger. This inexcusable self-immolation was not what was meant to be when the country voted for independence from Sudan in January 2011.
PREVIOUS LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2019
June 22 - Mauritania - according to the constitution President Mohamed Ould Aziz steps down this year after two terms as president and has refused amending the constitution to allow him to run for a third term. It is the first time that a leader has left power peacefully in Mauritania. He took power following a military coup in 2008. In the 2015 presidential election he won 82% of the vote. Former Defence Minister Mohamed Ahmed Ould Ghazouani is to represent the ruling Union pour la Republique (UPR) in this election. Other candidates include Sidi Mohamed Ould Boubacar of the National Rally for Reform and Development, rights activist Biram Dah Abeid and oppostion coalition candidate Mohamed Ould Mouloud. If no candidate obtains 50% of the vote there will be a run-off on July 6. Mauritania achieved independence from France in 1960 and the first president held power for 18 years before being ousted in a military coup. More coups followed in 1984, 2005 and 2008. Slavery still exists big time in Mauritania even though it was banned 35 years ago. When the result was announced Mohamed Ghazouani managed to secure a convenient 52% with Biram Dah Abeid next on 18.5%. Four opposition candidates contested the outcome when the result was submitted to the constitutional council for validation. Of course to no affect!
May 21 - Malawi - President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is set to stand again. In the last election in 2014 Mutharika was declared the winner with 36% of the votes cast with Lazrous Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party in second place with 28%. (A recommendation that the victor should need 50%+1 to secure the presidency was vetoed by parliament.) In Malawi, using a biometric system of voting for the first time, it is a first past the post system of voting which sees the candidate with the largest percentage of the votes taking all. Mutharika has snubbed the DPP leaders and chosen a political novice, Everton Chimulirnji, as his running mate. Lazrous Chakwera, of the Malawi Congress Party, is challenging again and in a recent opinion poll is just 2% behind Mutharika in a survey by Zomba-based Institute of Public Opinion and Research (IPOR). Also in the mix will be Vice-President Saulos Chilima who is leader of the newly-formed United Transformation Movement who promises to reboot the country's administration from corruption, nepotistism and factionism to accountability and ethical and inclusive leadership. IPOR gives him currently 17% of the vote. Former President Joyce Banda has withdrawn from the race after intensive talks with Chakwera. In all 7 candidates will contest this election. At the invitation of the Malawi Electoral Commission the EU has agreed to send election observers to try to ensure that the contest is transpartent, inclusive and credible. However, they immediately flagged up their concern about previous recommendations failing to be implemented after the 2014 election.These include the misuse and abuse of government resources by the ruling party and the failure to open up the media to the opposition. Malawi faces many socio-economic problems not least with half the population living in poverty with just 11% having access to electricity. Malawi's young population also suffers from high unemployment. Plenty of food for thought for whoever wins. When the result was finally announced Mutharika scored 38.6% followed closely by Chakwera with 35.4% and Chilima with 20.2%. Turnout 74%. Both Chakwera and Chilima highlighted irregularities. This election has now been dubbed the Tippex election after numerous results sheets showed figures erased by correction fluid and different figures superimposed onto them. The Malawi Electoral Commission admitted the use of Tippex but denied any wrongdoing. As a result mainly young protesters took to the streets and this carried on gathering momentum in the ensuing months. With massive nationwide protests going on the case was referred to the Constitutional Court in Lilongwe. However, with so much at stake, and a bureaucratic process to get through, a final decision may not be made here until early 2020.
May 8 - South Africa - having deposed Jacob Zuma in December 2017, President Ramaphosa continues under severe pressure after finally admitting that a company named African Global Operations contributed 500,000 rand (£27,500) to Ramaphosa's campaign for the leadership of the ANC. Initially he denied receiving this payment stating that it was to his son for consultancy work. However, on further questioning he said that he had mistakingly mislead parliament and acknowledged that it was a campaign contribution. Both the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) are not going to forget this. In the 2014 presidential election Zuma and the ANC won 62% of the vote followed by the Democratic Alliance with 22%. Ramaphosa's anti-corruption campaign and his re-election attempt is being undermined by key players in the ANC loyal to Zuma who are seeking to stand for parliament in this election. However, the electorate should still be on the side of Ramaphosa and the ANC, giving the man and the party one last chance to set the country on the route to progress. When the votes had all been counted the ANC had garnered 57% followed by the DA on 21% and the EFF with 10%. This was the first time that the ANC had received less than 60% of the votes cast. Turnout 65%. Now the challenge for Ramaphosa is to give hope to the unemployed (currrent rate 27%, youth unenployment 50%); tackle corruption; improve the economy which has averaged growth of just 1.5% in the last decade; confront inequality which shows currently Black South Africans earning, on average, 20% of their White compatriots and rid the party of Jacob Zuma's cronies. One tall order but he must start immediately, for if he doesn't, next time the party of Nelson Mandela may not even score 50%. And Mandela's legacy turned to dust.
March 24 - Comoros - on 30 July 2018 there was an amendment to the constitution passed. The referendum, boycotted by the opposition, endorsed extending presidential term limits as well as abolishing the power-sharing system that had rotated the presidency every 5 years among the main islands of Grand Commore, Anjouan and Moheli. President Azali Assoumani from Grand Comore gained power under this power-sharing system in April 2016 and was due to serve 5 years as president until 2021. But the controversial changes to the constitution effectively allow President Assoumani to remain in office for 8 years beyond his proper term. However, as a sop to the opposition, he agreed to bring forward the date of the next election to March, 2019. The opposition opposed this idea stating they had no time to prepare. However, the election went ahead with the result that Assoumani gathered 61% of the vote and will rule for another 5 years. His opponents declared that this election had been rigged and violence broke out across the archipelago. This prompted the African Union, which was heavily critical of this election stating it was full of irregularities, to call on all sides for restraint. President Assoumani is now laying claims to Mayotte which voted to remain under French jurisdication in 1974 and which re-inforced this decision in 2009 when they voted overwhelmingly to become even more closely integrated into France by a margin of over 95% as that country's 101st departement even though the island is mainly Muslim. In 2016 Mayotte's GDP per capita was 15 times that of the rest of the Comoros.
February 23 (delayed by one week) - Nigeria - President Muhammadu Bukari will seek to win a second and final four year term. Opposing him will be Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party, the party of former presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Olusegun Obasanjo, under whom Abubakar served as vice-president. Also in the mix will be Kingsley Moghalu, a former deputy governor of the Central Bank and candidate of the Young Progressive Party who presents himself in the mould of Emmanuel Macron. Both Buhari and Abubakar are promising huge domestic investment in infrastructure projects, the encouragement of more foreign direct investment and reduced taxes all of which they hope will lead to the creation of thousands of jobs. But both sets of policies probably fail the credibility test. Nigeria is the world's seventh most populous nation with 200 million people but even with being so blessed with so much in the way of natural resources the country is poorer today than when it became a democracy in 1999. Buhari retained the presidency winning 15.1m votes (56%) of the votes cast to Abubakar's 11.2m. Turnout was just 35.6%, the lowest since the return to civilian rule in 1999.
February 24 - Senegal - having served one full term of 7 years Macky Sall bids to prolong his presidency for another 5 years after a change in the constitution which now limits presidential terms to 2 x 5 years. He will be up against only 4 candidates accepted by the Constitutional Council. When the final result was announced Macky Sall was duly confirmed as president for another 5 years amassing 58.3% of the vote ahead of Idrissa Seck with 20.5%. Ousmane Sonko was third with 15.7%. Turnout was a record high at 66.2%.
just1world has been following leadership elections in Africa since 2004.
BELOW ARE THE DETAILS OF THE ONLY 27 OCCASIONS, SINCE INDEPENDENCE, WHEN RULING PARTIES HAVE BEEN DEFEATED IN LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS ON THE LAND CONTINENT OF AFRICA WHICH CURRENTLY COMPRISES 48 COUNTRIES:-
1. 1967 SOMALIA Aden Abdullah Osman Daar was elected
the countrys first president in 1960 after independence. In the
presidential election in 1967 he was defeated by Abdirashid Ali Shermarke,
his former prime minister, making him the first leader in Africa to peacefully
hand over power to a democratically elected successor. And it was a long
wait until the next time.
9. 2000 COTE D'IVOIRE - in a 1999 coup General Robert
Guei came to power but in the subsequent poll his attempt to claim victory
led to an uprising which carried the poll's victor, Laurent Gbagbo, to
20. 2015 Feb LESOTHO - in a closely fought election Prime Minister Thomas Thabane of the All Basotha Convention lost out in this 'early' election gaining only 46 seats to former Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili and the Democratic Congress who got 47 seats. And with the support of the Lesotho Congress for Democracy and smaller parties Mosisili secured the premiership which he held between 1998 and 2012.
21. 2015 Mar NIGERIA - former miltary leader General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress defeats incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party by 15.4 million votes to 12.9 million. Buhari, president from 1983-5, united the opposition to forge a major single opposing party and along with security concerns over Boko Harem and widespread dissatisfaction with the PDP, romped home to a convincing vistory.
22. 2016 Mar BENIN - Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou taking over the mantle of leadership of the Forces Cauris party from retiring President Boni Yayi went down by 65% to 35% in a run-off against businessman Patrice Talon.
23. 2016 Dec GAMBIA - President Yahya Jammeh, in power since 1994, loses to a coalition of seven opposition parties under the leadership of property developer Adama Barrow. Barrow scored 43.3% of the votes cast to Jammeh's 39.6%.
24. 2016 Dec GHANA - opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo, at the third attempt, won the presidency defeating John Mahama by 53.9% to 44.4%. Mahama, 72, was formerly a justice and foreign minister and a human rights lawyer. This marks the third time in 16 years that Ghana has changed its government.
25. 2017 Dec LIBERIA - with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf adhering to the constitution and stepping down after 2 terms, George Weah of the Coalition for Democratic Change defeats Vice-President Joseph Bokai of the governing Unity Party by 61.5% to 38.5% of the vote to become president.
26. 2018 Mar SIERRA ELONE - with Ernest Koroma keeping to the constitution and standing down after 2 terms, Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People's Party defeated Dr Samura Bio of the ruling All Peoples Congress Party in a run-off by 52% to 48%.
27. 2018 Dec DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - with term limits preventing Joseph Kabila from entering this presidential election, the ruling party nominated Emmanuel Shadary to fight in his place. He came third in the poll behind the winner Felix Tshisekedi who won with 39% of the vote ahead of Martin Fayulu with 35%. First time power changed hands democratically in the DRC. But with Kabila's political coalition winning a decisive majority in parliament he now has the power to 'control' his successor and is doing so! It is estimated that Fayulu actually won 60% of the vote here.