African elections - just democrazy!
More than half a century ago European colonial powers started to cede control over their African colonies opening the door for independence. This move towards black majority rule was applauded by the US and the international community. However, with this handing of sovereignty back to African nations all that has really changed is that white minority rule has now been replaced by black minority rule, the new APARTHEID. Yet all Black Lives Matter!
It is a regrettable fact that in the intervening 50-60 years since independence swept over the African continent, only on TWENTY-EIGHT occasions* have ruling parties lost in presidential/leadership elections in the 48 countries which comprise the land mass of Africa. That is a staggering stat.
Though elections are held periodically in most African nations they are largely meaningless and rarely offer citizens the freedom to choose who leads them. This is because rulers/governing parties are addicted to power and are singularly adept at holding on to control through a combination of harassment of opponents, vote buying, ballot rigging, excluding opposition candidates from the ballot as well as getting the dead to vote! For anyone brave enough to challenge the establishment in African elections you might just as well jump into a river of crocodiles. They will be after your blood, you are going to need bait, you are swimming against the tide and you are likely to get hurt!
At the same time, the opposition is often fragmented meaning there is no single group to get right behind to try to leverage change. And the former president of the Republic of Congo, Pascal Lissouba, could be said to have publicly admitted to all this when he said that 'one does not organise elections to end up on the losing side.' Tanzanian Foreign Minister, Benjamin Memba, also underlined this sham when he stated recently that 'in Africa, when it comes to elections, irregularities and errors are a given.'
Little wonder, then, that ruling elites are perpetuated in power no matter how contemptuously they govern for there is nothing to prevent them doing so. Certainly not the African Union, whose own constitution even espouses democracy and free elections, as it is controlled by all the heads of African governments who want to stay in power for as long as possible. And certainly not western governments who, although they preach to their African counterparts about the need for free and fair elections and are even happy to finance them, rarely take governments to task for the way they monopolise power. And certainly not the United Nations whose 193 members, the latest being South Sudan in 2011, may have signed the UN Declaration of Human Rights but which all too many prefer to ignore. As a result, in Africa, more governments are toppled through popular uprisings/military coups - in August 2020 in Mali; in April 2019 in Algeria and Sudan; in November 2017 in Zimbabwe; in January 2016 in The Gambia; in October 2014 in Burkina Faso; in 2013 in Central African Republic and Egypt; in 2012 in Mali and Guinea-Bissau; in 2010 in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Niger; in 2009 in Madagascar and in 2008 in Guinea and Mauritania - than through the ballot box.
It is this unchallenged rule and the lack of censure from within or without which is the principal factor as to why, today, Africa is the home of many of the world's longest serving autocrats, some of whom have been in power for 40 years - Obiang Nguema in Equatorial Guinea since 1979 and Paul Biya in Cameroon since 1982. At the same time, dynasties are being established in Togo and Gabon, with sons taking over from fathers, which has led to the same families ruling these two nations since 1967 - more than half a century.
According to 'African Insiders', the typical African political leader is old, male and in many cases of questionable legitimacy. Of the 90 presidents, prime ministers and other top ranking politicians on the continent, only two are female. The median age is 62 years, compared to a median age of 19 for the entire population of the continent. Of the 54 politicians who can be considered to lead their countries, 24 originally came to power under extra-constitutional circumstances like coups and fraudulent elections, changed constitutional term limits to their own benefit, or were preceded by a close relative, usually their father, in office. And perhaps the most striking aspect of all this is that there is a complete lack of women in the continent's leadership.
A survey of public opinion across Africa in April, 2015 showed that nearly 3 in 4 Africans want their presidents to serve no more than 2 terms in office. However, how many leaders care what their people think! Therefore, in order to get round this limiting procedure constitutional coup d'etats are starting to take place. In July 2015, in Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza bulldozed his way to serving as president for at least another 5 years by ignoring the constitution and 'winning' a ballot that the opposition boycotted. Since then a referendum in May 2018 found 73% of the electorate voting to allow Nkurunziza to stand for 2 more 7 year terms after his current mandate expires which could see him extend his 'reign' until 2034. (Nkurunziza finally was persuaded to step down before the election in May 2020 and has since died.) The same happened in Rwanda and Congo Republic whilst in Uganda and Sudan members of parliament saved the citizens the trouble though people power later brushed al Bashir aside in Sudan in April 2019.
Now longevity of rule would not matter so much if these governments were inclusive with the goal of seeking to improve the lives of all of their people by delivering on economic growth, strong institutions of state, good governance, social welfare and human rights. However, the majority of regimes in the world's poorest continent by far, are more concerned with looking after the interests of their families and friends, amassing personal fortunes and selling off the country's natural resources to the highest bidder. No wonder then that the majority of Africans today are still subsistence farmers scratching a living from the soil as they have done since biblical times. Perhaps Black Lives Matter less in Africa!
In some countries, though, a few green shoots of democracy have started to appear and ruling parties have relinquished power. But this has only happened in a few countries like Ghana, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Benin, Zambia, Senegal, Lesotho, Nigeria and just recently The Gambia and Liberia. And with freely elected governments in only 10 out of 48 nations after a period of half a century, the holding of elections in too much of Africa only seeks to give legitimacy to one party rule and is surely a waste of everyone's time, effort and money. For until things change, for the European Union and the US to continue to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting fatuous elections in most of Africa is just 'democrazy'. Instead the West would be far better off encouraging improved leadership and bureaucratic competence in all developing countries through the targeting of overseas aid and practical support at the better governed countries.(see RECOMMENDATIONS)
Nevertheless, although the chances of change at the ballot box are few, for record purposes, just1WORLD will produce below a timetable of forthcoming leadership elections in African nations. As each country's election draws closer we shall show what happened in the previous election and present the main opposition candidates/parties in the contest about to be fought. After the election we shall give the result and report the findings of the international election observers which will undoubtedly be along the lines of that, although there were problems in certain areas, the election itself probably reflected the will of the people.
(Only 3 nations in Africa do NOT currently hold leadership elections - Eritrea, Morocco and Eswatini, formerly Swaziland, the last two being ruled by monarchs. In Africa, men/women are allowed to vote at 18 in all countries except in Cameroon, Central African Republic and Gabon where the voting age is 21. However, in Sudan the voting age is 17)
NEXT LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2020
October 18 - Guinea - on March 22 the people of Guinea voted in a referendum to decide whether President Alpha Conde should have the right to run for a third term in this election. And in a reduced turnout the president received 92% of the votes cast allowing him to do just that and perhaps even a fourth term. Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari called on Conde to respect the terms of the constitution and stick to two terms. The EU and US dismissed the referendum as illegitimate. In 2015 Conde (Rally of the People of Guinea) won the presidential election with 58% of the votes ahead of Cellou Diallo (Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea) who amassed 31% in a field of 8 candidates. Conde will now contest the election. And with the government's stranglehold over the electoral management body, state resources, bureaucracy and security forces, and with limits on opposition groups, the elections are unlikely to be free and fair, thus assuring him of certain victory. 11 other candidates will enter the fray including Cellou Diallo.
October 22-24 - Seychelles - vice-president Danny Faure became president of this island archipelago in October 2016 after James Michel resigned. Michel of the People's Party had defeated Wavel Ramkalawan of the Seychelles National Party by the narrow margin of 50.15% to 49.85% in a run-off in December 2015. Faure will stand in this election for the United Seychelles Party. Around 90,000 citizens are eligible to vote in this election. Will the massive oil spill from a Japanese tanker causing a huge ecological disaster to marine life affect the outcome?
October 28 - Tanzania - President John Magufuli, nicknamed 'the bulldozer', was elected in 2015 with a promise to eradicate corruption and public mismanagment. Instead civil liberties and political rights have been curtailed and malfeasance continues to reign supreme across all elements of government. In 2015 Magufuli of the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) Party, which has held power since independence in 1961, won with 58.5% of the vote over former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa with 39%. The leader of the opposition, Tundu Lissu, of the Chadema Party, was fortunate to survive after being shot several times by unknown attackers in 2017 but, nevertheless, is returning home to fight this election after 20 operations and nearly 2 years spent recovering in Belgium. The Magufuli government denies any links to the attacks. He has now been adopted by Chadema. Another opposition party, the Alliance for Change and Transparency, led by Zitto Kabwe, will unite with Chadema to contest this election. According to Chadema, over the last 4 years freedom has been eroded with opponents of the ruling regime having been killed, kidnapped or disappeared. At the same time they claim people are in prison on false charges, farmers are not being paid for crops, cattle have been expropriated, civil servants have gone unpaid, sick people are unable to access doctors, education is in decline, unemployment rising whilst corruption is on the rise. The foreign national debt now stands at US$28.6bn. Magufuli claims success on electricity generation, improving infrastructure, education, health and water services. No international election observers are being allowed into the country which is not encouraging for a free and fair election. 29 million Tanzanians have registered to vote.
October 31 - Cote d'Ivoire - President Alassane Ouattara (78) announced that he will not seek a third term in office and stand by the constitution. In October 2015 Ouattara secured 84% of the vote ahead of former Prime Minister Pascal N'Guessan with 9%. Favourite to succeed Ouattara was the Prime Minister Amadou Coulibaly who also represents the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace Party. However, he died on July 8 and this could unsettle the election with Ouattara being encouraged to stand again by his party. And now Ouattara, through party pressure, has agreed to do just this resulting in daily mass street protests in the commercial capital Abidjan. However, Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari has asked Ouattara to adhere to the constitution. Planning to join the race is former president 86-year-old Henri Bedie of the Democratic Party of Cote d'Ivoire but age may defeat him. Former president Laurent Gbagbo is also in the mix when in early June he was given the green light to return home by the International Criminal Court. Gbagbo was acquitted in 2019 over his alleged role in the violence following the election victory of Ouattara in 2010. Another possible candidate, Guillaume Soro, the former head of the National Assembly, is in self-imposed exile in Paris having been accused of embezzlement and laundering of public funds as well as plotting a coup, allegations he denies. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison in absentia. The introduction of voter identity cards into the mix could become another contentious election issue. Under Ouattara the economy has advanced at a decent rate of 8.5% per annum. Deadline for submitting papers is August 31.
FUTURE LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2020
November 22 - Burkino Faso - Roch Kabore, a former prime minister, won the 2015 presidential election with 53.5% of the vote in this land-locked country which has the lowest literacy rate in the world. Opposition parties have agreed to rally round any challenger who reaches the second round of voting. Although there are many aspiring challengers none of them seem to have a clear plan to defeat the armed insurgents that have cut across the country. As a result many parts of the country seem unlikely to participate because the safety of polling booths cannot be guaranteed. 14 candidates fought it out in 2015 and there are 11 hopefuls this time round. If no candidate reaches 50% of the votes cast, there will be a run-off 4 weeks later.
December 7 - Ghana - in the last election in December 2016 Nana Akufo-Addo of the New Patriotic Party defeated President John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress with 53.9% of the votes against 44.4%. Ghana has changed its government 3 times in the last 20 years and is considered the most democratic country on the continent..
December 27 - Central African Republic - will there be a ceasefire in place ahead of this election where the government currently controls less than 50% of the country? Former PM Faustin Touadera won the run-off election in February 2016 defeating Anicet Dologuele in the process but has singularly failed to unite the divisions in this wretched country of around 5 million people. The main problem lies in the fact that the country is divided in to two warring factions: the anti-Balaka (Christian) militias and the Seleka (Muslim) group. In recent years the EU has invested tens of millions of euros to help rebuild the country both economically and politically as well as support in disarming the militias and their integration into civil society. However, this has not worked as currently half a million people are still living as refugees in their own country. This country does not need another election; it needs the African Union to come in to establish reconciliation and the introduction of a government of technocrats who can, without favour, start to lay the foundations for this people poor, mineral rich nation to advance both politically and economically.
January 2021 - Uganda - in the 2016 election Dr Kizza Besigye, of the Forum for Democratic Change, challenged President Museveni for the 4th time and failed to win for the 4th time. However, this time he is stepping down. The mantle of the main opposition is now likely to come from 33 year-old Bobi Wine, a pop star turned politician, who is desperate to challenge President Museveni (74) in this election. Born Robert Kyagulanyi, the 6th child of the 4th wife of a Catholic yet polygamous father, he adopted his Christian name to pay homage to his idol Bob Marley and his surname to Wine 'because I shall probably get better with age.' He has formed a new party, National Unity Platform, with an umbrella as its emblem. The musician has been arrested several times and almost beaten to death as he has tried to win the support of the young who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Museveni's imperious rule. It will still be a tough call for Wine as Museveni, who has ruled this country for 34 inglorious years, will have the apparatus of state lined up in his favour.
March 2021 - Somalia - presidential elections in 2009, 2012 and 2017 were decided when 14,000 clan delegates voted in 329 lawmakers who then elected a president. However, the president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, in February 2020 signed a bill which will allow ordinary Somalis to vote in parliamentary elections in 2021. Should this happen it will be the first time since 1969 that a one-person/one vote election has taken place. Under this system Somalis will vote directly for parties with parliamentary seats being allocated according to final tallies. Members of parliament will then elect the president and prime minister. The PM must come from the majority party in parliament. Somalia faces major logistical hurdles to achieve this vote as parts of the country are controlled by the Islamist militant group al-Shabab whilst relaltions between the federal government and local administrations are often tense. At the same time Somaliland and Puntland are basically functioning independent entities.
May 2021 - Ethiopia (postponed from Aug 2020) - in the 2015 election Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democracy Front (EPRDF) won 547 seats out of 547 in the Ethiopian parliament making the country an one-party state! In February 2018 he stepped down in response to the fallout from mass protests and unrest which had started in 2016. The new prime minister was named as Abiy Ahmed who made a point of ending the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by making an historic visit there almost immediately. For this he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. He also released political prisoners and promised fair elections. At the same time he plans to liberalise the economy introducing a spate of privatisations of state-run sectors such as energy and telecommunications and the eventual opening up of the financial sector. The EPRDF, whose 4 core parties have controlled the state for 3 decades, is being replaced by a single national party - the Prosperity Party - that also appears to absorb ruling parties from the five regions not governed by EPRDF parties. However, one of the core parties, the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) is going it alone. That, at least, will mean there should be some opposition MPs in parliament this time! As many as 140 parties will contest 547 seats for parliament when the election is held.
July 2021 - South Sudan - (postponed from 2018) the last election was in 2011 when Salva Kir won a landslide victory in this country's first election. Since then civil war has erupted causing death and destruction forcing many to flee their homes all because of the sacking of Vice-President Riek Machar. At the same time 4.8 million people - half the population - are facing extreme hunger. This inexcusable self-immolation was not what was meant to be when the country voted for independence from Sudan in January 2011.
2021 - Libya - postponed yet again due to internal strife. General Khalifa Hafter, Libya's most powerful military commander and Faiez Serraj, head of the UN-backed government of national accord in the west of the country, had started to negotiate a peace deal raising hopes for an end to the 3 year civil war. Also at the talks brokered by President Macron in Paris were Aguilla Saleh Issa, parliament speaker based in Tobruk, who opposes the UN-backed administration and Khalid al-Mishri, head of the High Council of State, Libya's highest consultative body. All sides had agreed in principle to hold presidential along with parliamentary elections but there was worringly nothing in writing. There was also hope on an agreement on a unified army under Haftar. The UN had hoped that the Serraj government would unite the country but it has failed to secure the endorsement of the rival parliament in the east which backed Haftar. Libya has been torn apart by civil war since the overthrow and death of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 which led to the country being into east and west. With the current strife in and around the capital, Tripoli, it is looking like wishful thinking that any kind of election will be able to be held this year. The UN also wanted a delay to give Libyans firstly a forum to discuss their future followed by elections 'within months'.
2022 - Sudan - after the removal of President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 power is jointly held by a transitional government of the military and civilians. This is scheduled to move to civilian control next year with elections for a full civilian government set for 2022. Sudan previously was a military dictatorship.
PREVIOUS LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2020
June 23 - Malawi - in an event almost unprecedented in Africa, the constitutional court in Malawi rescinded the result of the controversial election last May when President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party was narrowly re-elected with 38.6% of the vote ahead of Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party with 35.4%. In third place with 20.2% came Saulos Chilima of the newly formed United Transformation Movement. Chilema was formerly vice-president. Both opposition candidates claimed that the election was full of irregularities and indeed the Malawi Electoral Commission admitted that Tippex had been used but denied any wrongdoing. The case was eventually referred to the Constitutional Court. Ahead of the outcome there were months of tense clashes between the opposition and the police. This is the first election to be legally challenged in Malawi's history and indeed in the whole of Africa very few election outcomes have been successfully challenged. Peter Mutharika will stay in power until a new election takes place before the end of June whilst Saulos Chilema is back as vice-president. A rerun is estimated to cost this impoverished country US$58m. The Constitutional Court also heavily criticised the current first-past-the-post system for choosing a president and has interpreted the provision of 'majority of the electorate' as meaning that a candidate should be chosen by more than 50% of the ballots cast. From now on, to become president, a candidate will require a minimum of 50% plus one vote of the total valid votes. If no one candidate achieves this in the first round, a second run-off between the 2 leading candidates will take place 30 days later. In the run-off Chakwera and Chilima have joined forces in a Tonse Alliance party. At the same time former president Joyce Banda has taunted Mutharika saying that he should be stepping down at the age of 80 in favour of someone younger. When all the votes were counted Chakwera recorded 59% with Mutharika on 39%. Onwards then to a New Malawi!
May 20 - Burundi - despite the Covid-19 pandemic this election goes ahead. President Nkurunziza's time as leader should have seen his tenure in office end in 2015. However, this ordained minister believes he is the 'eternal supreme guide' for his country and chosen by God to rule so he competed and won a third term. Then, after a referendum passed in 2018 he was potentially permitted to stay in power until 2034. This led to a crisis which saw 300,000 people fleeing the country for safety. But then, in an announcement of monumental proportions, in January 2020, Burundi's parliament voted to pay US$530,000 to Nkurunziza, provide him with a luxury villa as well as granting him the title of 'supreme leader' if he was to step down in May. This lavish agreement contrasts with the plight of the Burundian people where two-thirds live in poverty and half go to bed hungry every night. Add to this that the African Union, EU and the UN have delivered reports severely criticising Nkurunziza and you wonder why on earth this largesse was granted. However, now the coast seems clear to elect a new leader. That man will almost certainly be Evariste Ndayishimiye, currently secretary-general of the CNDD-FDD and its candidate in this election. But then the question has to be asked: will Nkurunziza still be pulling the strings? It has happened in the DRC so why shouldn't it happen here! There are 5 other candidates seeking the presidency. Agathon Rwasa is the candidate for the National Freedom Council and probably the main challenger. The declaration showed that Ndayishimiye had won 68% of the votes with Rwasa trailing well behind with 24%. Turnout was reportedly 90%! Rwasa'a party immediately cried foul suggesting that their own numbers had shown that their man had won. The Roman Catholic Church echoed his concerns. Before he was obliged to step down Nkurunziza died of a heart attack on June 8.
February 22 - Togo - in the last election in 2015 Faure Gnassingbe of the Rally for the Togolese People (RTP) secured another victory with 60% of the votes cast. He has been in power since 2005 taking over from his father Eyadema who had ruled this country since 1967. In May 2019, Togo's parliament changed the constitution to give the Gnassingbe permission to contest elections in 2020 and 2025 amid mass public demonstrations. The constitution was also amended to guarantee the Togolese leader immunity for life. Six other candidates will contest the election including Jean Pierre Fabre of the National Alliance for Change (ANC) and Agbeyome Messan Kodjo of the Patriotic Movement for Democracy and Development (MPDD). Kodjo is a former prime minister and head of the national assembly. Despite protests, with the weight of the state behind him, it will take an earthquake of monumental proportions to dislodge Gnassingbe No2. And part of that tremor would need the main opposition parties to join forces and unite behind one candidate. Final results showed Gnassingbe with 72% of the vote with Kodjo on 18%. Not surprisingly Kodjo is claiming ballot rigging and people casting multiple votes. No international observers were invited: only the AU and Ecowas observed and unsurpringly they both gave the poll a clean bill of health. On to the next 50 year then!
just1world has been following leadership elections in Africa since 2004.
BELOW ARE THE DETAILS OF THE ONLY 28 OCCASIONS, SINCE INDEPENDENCE, WHEN RULING PARTIES HAVE BEEN DEFEATED IN LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS ON THE LAND CONTINENT OF AFRICA WHICH CURRENTLY COMPRISES 48 COUNTRIES:-
1. 1967 SOMALIA Aden Abdullah Osman Daar was elected
the countrys first president in 1960 after independence. In the
presidential election in 1967 he was defeated by Abdirashid Ali Shermarke,
his former prime minister, making him the first leader in Africa to peacefully
hand over power to a democratically elected successor. And it was a long
wait until the next time.
9. 2000 COTE D'IVOIRE - in a 1999 coup General Robert
Guei came to power but in the subsequent poll his attempt to claim victory
led to an uprising which carried the poll's victor, Laurent Gbagbo, to
20. 2015 Feb LESOTHO - in a closely fought election Prime Minister Thomas Thabane of the All Basotha Convention lost out in this 'early' election gaining only 46 seats to former Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili and the Democratic Congress who got 47 seats. And with the support of the Lesotho Congress for Democracy and smaller parties Mosisili secured the premiership which he held between 1998 and 2012.
21. 2015 Mar NIGERIA - former miltary leader General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress defeats incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party by 15.4 million votes to 12.9 million. Buhari, president from 1983-5, united the opposition to forge a major single opposing party and along with security concerns over Boko Harem and widespread dissatisfaction with the PDP, romped home to a convincing vistory.
22. 2016 Mar BENIN - Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou taking over the mantle of leadership of the Forces Cauris party from retiring President Boni Yayi went down by 65% to 35% in a run-off against businessman Patrice Talon.
23. 2016 Dec GAMBIA - President Yahya Jammeh, in power since 1994, loses to a coalition of seven opposition parties under the leadership of property developer Adama Barrow. Barrow scored 43.3% of the votes cast to Jammeh's 39.6%.
24. 2016 Dec GHANA - opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo, at the third attempt, won the presidency defeating John Mahama by 53.9% to 44.4%. Mahama, 72, was formerly a justice and foreign minister and a human rights lawyer. This marks the third time in 16 years that Ghana has changed its government.
25. 2017 Dec LIBERIA - with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf adhering to the constitution and stepping down after 2 terms, George Weah of the Coalition for Democratic Change defeats Vice-President Joseph Bokai of the governing Unity Party by 61.5% to 38.5% of the vote to become president.
26. 2018 Mar SIERRA ELONE - with Ernest Koroma keeping to the constitution and standing down after 2 terms, Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People's Party defeated Dr Samura Bio of the ruling All Peoples Congress Party in a run-off by 52% to 48%.
27. 2018 Dec DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - with term limits preventing Joseph Kabila from entering this presidential election, the ruling party nominated Emmanuel Shadary to fight in his place. He came third in the poll behind the winner Felix Tshisekedi who won with 39% of the vote ahead of Martin Fayulu with 35%. First time power changed hands democratically in the DRC. But with Kabila's political coalition winning a decisive majority in parliament he now has the power to 'control' his successor and is doing so! It is estimated that Fayulu actually won 60% of the vote here.
28. 2020 Jun - MALAWI - after the constitutional court annulled the result of the disputed 2019 presidential poll because of irregularities, in the rerun, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party came back from the dead to defeat President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party by winning 59% of the votes cast against 39%.