News and Views

THE AFRICA OF THE FUTURE - AGENDA 2063

This is the African Union's strategic framework that aims to deliver on the goal of sustainable and inclusive development across the continent by 2063. According to the AU the major impediments to the implementation of Agenda 2063 are conflict, poverty, inequality, unemployment, climate change, illegal financial flows and corruption. Strange. Nothing about feckless government!

INTERNET PENETRATION IN AFRICA IN 2023

Kenya has the highest internet penetration in Africa according to Internet World Stats with 87.2% of the country's population online. Continuing demand for the internet in Africa is being driven by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and the increasing reduction in price and the availability of smartphones. The second highest penetration is found in Libya with 74.2% followed by Seychelles in third place with 72.5%. The lowest internet penetration is in Western Sahara with 4.7% followed by South Sudan 7.9% and Eritrea with 8.3%. Nigeria remains the top nation in terms of numbers of internet users with over 126m which equals a penetration of 61.2%. Overall across the continent penetration is estimated at 47.1%. Globally it is 60%.

AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which all members of the African Union bar Eritrea  have signed up to, commenced on 1 January 2021. It is the most ambitious trade zone project in the world. No other region has tried to fuse 54* countries into a single market and eventually a full customs union. It will be a market of 1.2bn people with a combined GDP of US$3.0 trillion. Currently intra-African trade stands at 17% of total trade compared to 59% across Asia and 68% across Europe.

*Eritrea still refuses to join AfCFTA.

JERUSALEMA

This haunting South African chorus on YouTube, with religious lyrics referencing the Holy City in Zulu, became the dance sensation of lockdown. Featuring vocals by Master KG and Nomcebo its upbeat tempo seems to capture the unmet aspirations of the African people who for far too long have been let down by their leaders. The music is intoxicating so why not track it down on YouTube and dance the night away like you have never done before!

INEQUALITY SEEN AS ROOT CAUSE OF INSTABILITY IN THE SAHEL

According to a survey by the aid group Catholic Relief Services unequal wealth is the main cause of worsening violence in the Sahel - Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. Here the wealthiest 1% of people, it is estimated, own more than everyone else in the region combined. At the same time this wealth is concentrated in the capital cities leaving most of the rest of each country in despair with rising youth unemployment. At the same time conflict in the Sahel has caused one of the world's largest humanitarian crises causing millions to flee their homes resulting in 24m people seeking aid and 13m going hungry in 2022.

With its porous borders and vast, loosely controlled desert expanses, the Sahel has proved to be ideal soil for the increase in Islamist militancy while climate change is aggravating pastoral life.

CIVICUS MONITOR

The Civicus Monitor rates the state of civil society freedoms in every country in the world based on various sources of updated data. To this end it places countries in one of five broad bands - open, narrowed, obstructed, repressed or closed. For Africa the highest rating is 'narrowed' and includes 4 nations: Ghana, Botswana, South Africa and Namibia. Those countries which are rated 'closed' are Libya, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea, Djibouti and Eritrea. Civicus agrees that it alone will not cause governments to stop violating citizens' rights nor compel the international community into action.

DECLINING POPULATIONS IN RICH COUNTRIES WILL ONLY SLOW WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

Fertility rates across the rich world had started to fall rapidly even before the pandemic. The reproduction level needed to sustain populations is 2.1 children per mother but in many developed countries this level has been left behind. In Sweden, Ireland and France the fertility rate is 1.85; US, Denmark and Iceland 1.75; UK 1.55; Germany 1.55; Finland and Japan 1.35; and 1.30 in Spain, Italy and Portugal. But the lowest growth of all is South Korea with 0.88. In Hungary, where the fertility rate is only 1.50, Prime Minister Victor Orban is worried and has offered potential mothers income tax exemption for life if they produce 4 children. At the same time IVF treatment is free there. It seems then that women in wealthy nations are thinking twice about producing children. Why? Perhaps, through years of schooling, they feel the need for a career of their own, where they don't need to rely on their husband whilst they don't want to take time out to look after kids in their early years. Or maybe it is because of equality or the fact that childbirth is now considered so painful and even-life threatening. On the other hand, in poor countries in the developing world, the birthrate continues at high levels. Africa's population in 2050 is expected to grow from 1.3bn to 2.0bn helped by high birth rates in countries like Niger with 6.1 children per mother and Nigeria with 5.5. The world population is currently 8.02bn and is growing at a rate of 1.05% per annum. At this rate the planet's population will hit 10bn in 2057. However, recent growth rates have been falling so it might take longer than forecast for us all to be rubbing shoulders with 10bn others across the globe.

OIL PLUNDER

A report by the Nigeria Natural Resources Charter has revealed that the country has the highest reported crude oil theft in the world with the country recording losing a staggering 400,000 barrels a day. This equates to US$8,700,000,000 per annum. How can any nation, even Nigeria, tolerate this gargantuan loss? In contrast in second place is Mexico which loses an average of 7,500 barrels per day.

MOST UNEQUAL COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD

In trying to measure inequality across countries the Gini Coefficients takes the richest 10% of the population's share of Gross National Income (GNI) and divides it by the poorest 40%'s share. Under this system (0=perfect equality; 100=total inequality) the most unequal country in the world is South Africa (63) followed by Namibia (61) and Botswana (60). The rest of the bottom nations scoring over 50 are Suriname (57), Zambia (57), Central African Republic (56), Lesotho (54), Belize (53), Swaziland (51), Brazil (51), Colombia (51) and Panama (51). In contrast the most equal countries on the planet are :- Ukraine (25), Iceland (25), Slovenia (25), Czech Republic (25), Slovak Republic (26), Kazakhstan (26), Belarus (26), Norway (26), Finland (26), Moldova (27), Sweden (27), Romania (27) and Algeria (27). The most equal countries in sub-Saharan Africa are Sao Tome/Principe (30), Mauritania (32), Mali (33), Ethiopia (33), Liberia (33) and Guinea (33). Other scores - Germany (31), Japan (32), France (32), Switzerland (32), UK (34), Australia (34), India (35), Russia (37), USA (41), China (42).

A NEW KIND OF TOURISM - SLUM SAFARIS

Visiting foreign countries can lead to many vivid encounters and now there is a new kind of experience to which tourists are signing up to - slum safaris. In Nairobi, capital of Kenya, three former street kids have come up with their own walking tour which includes crossing fetid rivers, visiting ramshackle houses, spots for the easiest muggings and stopping off at glue bars to chat to glazed-eyed customers. Also confronted are numerous homeless street urchins, many begging by the roadside who, if they fail, stand or fall on their own ability and determination to survive. It is estimated that there are 60,000 hungry and homeless street kids living in Nairobi - a damning statistic in a country where politicians are more concerned with amassing wealth and securing re-election rather than looking after the needs of their peoples. The three former street kids who set up the venture are now doing very well and should be congratulated in finding a successful business opportunity. As for William Ruto and his government - they need to take that walking tour too! But of this there is NO chance.

NEW GLOBAL MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY INDEX (MPI)

This index for 2023 jointly developed by the United Nations Development Programme and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative gives data for 110 countries covering 80% of the global population. The index aims to shine light on the number of people experiencing poverty at regional, national and sub-national levels, and reveal inequalities across countries and among the poor themselves. The MPI provides a comprehensive and in-depth picture of global poverty looking beyond income to understand how people experience poverty in multiple ways. It tries to identify how people are left behind across 3 key dimensions: health, education and standard of living, using 10 indicators. People who experience deprivation in at least one third of these weighted indicators fall into the category of multidimensionally poor.

HEALTH: NUTRITION 1/6; CHILD MORTALITY 1/6
EDUCATION: YEARS OF SCHOOLING 1/6: SCHOOL ATTENDANCE 1/6
STANDARD OF LIVING: COOKING FUEL 1/18: SANITATION 1/18: DRINKING WATER 1/18: ELECTRICITY 1/18: HOUSING 1/18: ASSETS 1/18.

From these calculations the countries with the largest percentage of the population living in multidimensional poverty are:-
SOUTH SUDAN 91, NIGER 90, CHAD 85, BURKINA FASO 83, ETHIOPIA 83
C.A.R. 79, MALI 78, MADAGASCAR 77, BURUNDI 74, D.R.C. 74, MOZAMBIQUE 72
GUINEA-BISSAU 67, BENIN 66, LIBERIA 62, GUINEA 61.

[Nigeria (population 220,000,000) has now succeeded India (population 1,416,000,000) in hosting the largest number of poor people in the world.]

It is ridiculous and iniquitous that leaders of those countries still cannot find the road to prosperity after 60 years of independence. They plainly lack the inclination, aspiration, determination or any consideration whatsoever in striving to improve the lot of their people. As such, these governments and the African Union should feel embarrassed and ashamed.

PAUL KAGAME, PRESIDENT OF RWANDA, AND THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE

Addressing a meeting of 2,000 leaders from across Rwanda, President Paul Kagame told them that 'integrity, competence, willingness to learn and having a sense of purpose on what they want to achieve for the common good are virtues that all impactful leaders must embrace.' He was joined on the platform by Pastor Rick Warren, the American evangelist, who himself 'urged leaders to always have a dream of what they want to achieve, to take action to implement it and to constantly learn about how to improve what they are doing. The moment you stop learning you will stop leading.' The forum comprised 300 government officials, 300 business leaders and 1,200 church leaders. Pastor Warren then went on to 'urge leaders in all three sectors to always consult each other and work together to improve their services to the people.'

Surely one of the most positive and constructive gatherings to be held anywhere in Africa which shows Paul Kagame's leadership really is changing lives in Rwanda. Which begs the question as to why he has to resort to allowing serious civil and political rights violations, according to a recent EU report, with critics being allegedly killed, physically attacked, jailed or forced into exile. Sadly, it seems, there are still few true success stories coming out of Africa.

RICHEST 1% OF AFRICANS OWN MORE THAN OTHER 99%

According to Oxfam, the international aid charity, inequality is at crisis levels in west Africa where the wealthiest 1% own more than everyone else in the region combined. It goes on to say that the combined wealth of Nigeria's 5 richest men - US$29.9bn/£24bn - is more than the government budget in a country where Oxfam estimate that 69% of Nigerians are living below the poverty line. The least committed countries to reducing this inequality are Nigeria, Niger and Sierra Leone whilst the report found that the 3 most determined were Cape Verde, Mauritania and Senegal. To address this problem Oxfam suggests that west African governments should promote progressive taxation, boost social spending, strengthen labour market protection, invest in agriculture and seek land rights for smallholder farmers.



WORLD POVERTY CLOCK

The World Poverty Clock - https://worldpoverty.io - is a wonderful way to watch those escaping poverty, second by second, by running away from it. Sadly it also shows those running into it and in which country, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. The serious side to it is that the UN Millennium Development Goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 is way off track already. But with 17 goals and 169 targets perhaps that is not surprising!

AN AFRICAN BRIGHT SPOT

Ever since the 1987 the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Championships in Rome, men born and raised in Kenya or Ethiopia have won 72% of the medals on offer in the 10,000m; 5,000m and 3,000m steeplechase. For cultural reasons, women took a little longer to assert their dominance, but since the 1999 World championships in Seville, Kenyan and Ethiopian women have won an amazing 81% of medals offered in the 10,000m and 5,000m. So what is the secret of this astonishing success?

According to Adharanand Finn, an editor on the Guardian newspaper, there are several factors which have come together for this perfect setting. In rural areas of the high altitude Rift Valley, in both Kenya and Ethiopia, children grow up leading active lives running to and from school and doing chores, often in bare feet. All of which is supplemented by a diet rich in rice, beans, maize and kale.

These conditions aren't unique to Ethiopia and Kenya, but what is singular to this part of east Africa is a culture that embraces running as a viable life option. Parents will support children wanting to run whilst other older runners will pass on shoes, clothing and advice. And kids also see it as a way out of poverty as running is often the only 'show in town'. Coaching, encouragement, passion and a will to win also lie here in abundance in a land full of opportunity for distance runners.

Middle-distance running then is an amazing African success story which has lasted more than 30 years. In this time, though, running successful governments in these 2 countries, like so many others in Africa, has proved more elusive. And that is why the number of Africans living in extreme poverty has increased by 100 million in the last 30 years, according to the World Bank. Too many governments in Africa, it seems, are still running on borrowed time!

WORLD'S MOST RESPECTED PERSONS

Forget politicians like Barack Obama, Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron for the world's most respected persons today must surely be Bill and Melinda Gates. Together in 2000 they set up the Gates Foundation which focuses on improving people's health and wellbeing, expanding educational opportunities and helping individuals lift themselves out of hunger and extreme poverty in the developing world. Together and separately, for the last decade, they have travelled the world talking to HIV positive prostitutes, trying to eradicate diseases such as polio and tuberculosis, chivvying leaders of rich countries to increase their overseas aid budgets whilst encouraging governments in developing countries to start to get their act together especially on health matters. And now they are investing much in research into the coronavirus. The largest area for investment has always been health with large sums given over to control infectious diseases, malaria and TB. Massive sums have also been made available to supply condoms to women so that they should not be forced to get pregnant over and over again. In this way women gain control over their bodies and they will make different choices that will effect not only their families but their communities and, in time, their countries. Organisations receiving the most funding from the Gates Foundation are GAVI Alliance, the public-private global health partnership committed to increasing access to immunisation in poor countries; World Health Organisation and The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. To date Bill Gates has donated over US$59bn to the foundation. Few people have ever been in the position to change the world but in the case of Bill Gates he has not only done it once (with Microsoft) but twice. And Africa, and the developing world, owe him, and his former wife, a huge debt of gratitude.

More than half a century ago European colonial powers started to cede control over their African colonies opening the door for independence. This move towards black majority rule was applauded by the US and the international community. However, with this handing of sovereignty back to African nations all that has really changed is that white minority rule has now been replaced by black minority rule, the new APARTHEID. This objectionable discrimination throughout most of Africa brooks no protests in the West this time round yet all Black Lives Matter!

It is a regrettable fact that in the intervening 60 years since independence swept over the African continent, only on THIRTY-ONE occasions* have ruling parties lost in presidential/leadership elections in the 48 countries which comprise the land mass of Africa.  And all told ruling parties have only ever been defeated in 16 countries meaning that two in three African nations still have the original ruling party in charge in this the continent with most of the world's poorest countries. These are staggering stats!

Though elections are held periodically in most African nations most are no more than political pageants and rarely offer citizens the freedom to choose who leads them. This is because rulers/governing parties are addicted to power and are singularly adept at holding on to control through a combination of harassment of opponents, making it difficult for them to register, vote buying, ballot stuffing, excluding opposition candidates from the ballot as well as  many of the dead miraculously rising to cast their vote! And it can be costly to run to try to lead a country - in Niger the cost of standing for president is currently 1,000 times the average salary. At the same time, the opposition is often fragmented meaning there is no single group to get right behind to try to leverage change.Therefore, should anyone be brave enough to challenge the establishment in African elections you will be literally jumping into a river of crocodiles for they will be after your blood, you are going to need bait, you will be swimming against the current and you are likely to get hurt!

And the former president of the Republic of Congo, Pascal Lissouba, could be said to have publicly admitted to all this when he said that 'one does not organise elections to end up on the losing side.' Tanzanian Foreign Minister, Benjamin Memba, also underlined this sham when he stated recently that 'in Africa, when it comes to elections, irregularities and errors are a given.'

Little wonder, then, that ruling elites are perpetuated in power no matter how reprehensibly they govern for there is nothing to prevent them doing so. Certainly not the African Union, whose own constitution even espouses democracy and free elections, as it is controlled by all the heads of African governments who want to stay in power for as long as possible. And certainly not western governments who, although they preach to their African counterparts about the need for free and fair elections and are even happy to finance them, rarely take governments to task for the way they monopolise power. And certainly not the United Nations whose 193 members, the latest being the unfortunate and war-torn South Sudan in 2011, may have signed the UN Declaration of Human Rights but which all too many prefer to ignore. As a result, in Africa, more governments are toppled through popular uprisings/military coups - in Gabon in August 2023, in Niger in July 2023,  in January 2022 in Burkina Faso, in September 2021 in Guinea; in May 2021 in Mali; in April 2021 in Chad; in April 2019 in Algeria and Sudan; in November 2017 in Zimbabwe; in January 2016 in The Gambia; in October 2014 in Burkina Faso; in 2013 in Central African Republic and Egypt; in 2012 in Mali and Guinea-Bissau; in 2010 in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Niger; in 2009 in Madagascar and in 2008 in Guinea and Mauritania - than through the ballot box. For Niger this recent coup is the fifth since independence from France in 1960. Taking all the coups in the world through the last 60 years they are increasingly limited to the poorest countries.

It is this unchallenged rule and the lack of censure from within or without which is the principal factor as to why, today, Africa is the home of many of the world's longest serving autocrats, forever presidents/leaders, some of whom have been in power for over 40 years:

• Obiang Nguema in Equatorial Guinea since 1979,
• Paul Biya in Cameroon since 1982,
• Yoweri Museveni in Uganda since 1986,
• King Mswati in Eswatini since 1986,
• Afewerki Isaias in Eritrea since 1993,
• Denis Sassou-Nguesso in Republic of Congo 1979-92; 1997- .

Dynasties, too, are being established:

• In Togo and Gabon, until recently, with sons taking over from fathers, led to the same families ruling these two nations since 1967 - more than half a century. However, the latest coup in Gabon in August 2023 has brought an end to that dynasty.
• At the same time, in 1999, in Djibouti, President Omar Guelleh took over from his uncle Hassan Gouled Aptidon who had served as leader since independence from France in 1977.

The Democracy Index 2023 categories the regime types of 44 African countries, noting Mauritius as the sole full democracy. Six countries, including South Africa and Ghana, are labelled as flawed democracies, while 14 others, like Nigeria, Senegal and Kenya, are considered hybrid regimes. The remainder, comprising 23 nations such as Ethiopia and Zimbabwe, are classified as authoritarian regimes.

According to 'African Insiders', the typical African political leader is old, male and in many cases of questionable legitimacy. Of the 90 presidents, prime ministers and other top ranking politicians on the continent, only two are female. The median age is 62 years, compared to a median age of 19 for the entire population of the continent. Of the 54 politicians who can be considered to lead their countries, 24 originally came to power under extra-constitutional circumstances like coups and fraudulent elections, changed constitutional term limits to their own benefit, or were preceded by a close relative, usually their father, in office. And perhaps the most striking aspect of all this is that there is only one lady president in the continent's leadership.

A survey of public opinion across Africa in April, 2015 showed that nearly 3 in 4 Africans want their presidents to serve no more than 2 terms in office. However, how many leaders care what their people think! Therefore, in order to get round this limiting procedure constitutional coup d'etats are starting to take place. In July 2015, in Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza bulldozed his way to serving as president for at least another 5 years by ignoring the constitution and 'winning' a ballot that the opposition boycotted. Since then a referendum in May 2018 found 73% of the electorate voting to allow Nkurunziza to stand for 2 more 7 year terms after his current mandate expires which could see him extend his 'reign' until 2034. (Nkurunziza finally was persuaded to step down before the election in May 2020 and has since died.) The same happened in Rwanda, Congo Republic and Guinea whilst in Uganda and Sudan members of parliament saved the citizens the trouble though people power later brushed al Bashir aside in Sudan in April 2019.

Now longevity of rule would not matter so much if these governments were inclusive with the goal of seeking to improve the lives of all of their people by delivering on economic growth, strong institutions of state, good governance, social welfare and human rights. However, the majority of regimes in the world's poorest continent by far, are more concerned with looking after the interests of their families and friends, amassing personal fortunes and selling off the country's natural resources to the highest bidder. No wonder then that the majority of Africans today are still subsistence farmers scratching a living from the soil as they have done since biblical times. Perhaps Black Lives Matter less in Africa!

In some countries, though, a few green shoots of democracy have started to appear and ruling parties have relinquished power. But this has only happened in a few countries like Ghana, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Benin, Zambia, Senegal, Lesotho, Nigeria and just recently The Gambia and Liberia. And with freely elected governments in only 10 out of 48 nations after a period of half a century, the holding of elections in too much of Africa only seeks to give legitimacy to one party rule and is surely a waste of everyone's time, effort and money. For until things change, for the European Union and the US to continue to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into supporting fatuous elections in most of Africa is just 'democrazy'. Instead the West would be far better off encouraging improved leadership and bureaucratic competence in all developing countries through the targeting of overseas aid and practical support at the better governed countries.(see RECOMMENDATIONS)

Nevertheless, although the chances of change at the ballot box are few, for record purposes, just1WORLD will produce below a timetable of forthcoming leadership elections in African nations. As each country's election draws closer we shall show what happened in the previous election and present the main opposition candidates/parties in the contest about to be fought. After the election we shall give the result and report the findings of the 'international' election observers which will undoubtedly be along the lines of that, although there were problems in certain areas, the election itself probably reflected the will of the people.

(Only 3 nations in Africa do NOT currently hold leadership elections - Eritrea, Morocco and Eswatini, formerly Swaziland, the last two being ruled by monarchs. In Africa, men/women are allowed to vote at 18 in all countries except in Cameroon, Central African Republic and Gabon where the voting age is 21. However, in Sudan the voting age is 17)

NEXT LEADERSHIP ELECTION 2024

November 24 - Guinea-Bissau - postponed.

November 27 - Namibia - following the death of President of Hage Geingob in February 2024 Nangolo stepped into the presidency. However, he is not standing in this election. SWAPO, the South West Africa People's Organisation has always led the country since independence in 1990 but in 2019 the party lost its two-thirds majority in parliament for the first time. In that election Geingob won with 56% of the vote. Representing SWAPO is Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, a cabinet member since independence. But she will have a tough fight to win in the first round where the winner needs to score 50% of the vote. A run-off will follow if that target is not reached by any candidate. Namibia, home to 3 million people, continues to grapple with economic challenges and according to World Bank data Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has fallen from N$64,000 in 2015 to N$50,100 in 2023.

FUTURE LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2024

December 7 - Ghana - with Nana Akufo-Adda stepping down after 8 years as president for he cannot run again. He will be replaced by Mahamuda Bawumia as the ruling New Patriotic Party candidate. The main opposition National Democratic Congress party candidate will again be former one-term President John Mahama. Ten other candidates are also vying for the presidency. This will be the 9th general election since multiparty politics was introduced in the early 1990s and 1u8.8m Ghanaians are registered to vote. It can be said that Ghana is probably the most democratic country in Africa changing governments regularly. To win the presidency a candidate must get more than half the votes cast and if no one passes this threshold then a second round run-off featuring the two leading candidates will take place by the end of December.

December 22 - South Sudan - once again a national election to appoint a government of the people has been postponed. Since its birth in 2011 this country has never had elections and even given another decade it is unlikely that South Sudan would be ready for an election. President Salva Kiir has always had this position trying to create a maximum coalition between the two main tribes the Dinka and the Nur but the fear of losing power has always led to postponement. This nation does not need an election - it needs a pragmatic government of level-headed men and women at the top. But that is never going to happen leaving half the population perennially on the breadline.

PREVIOUS LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS 2024

November 13 - (Somaliland) -   Muse Bihi Abdi and the Kulmiye Party have held power here in this unofficial country since 2010 winning a second term in 2017. The main opposition party is Waddani led by Abdirahman Abdilahi. 33 years go Somaliland declared its unilateral withdrawal form the Somali Union. It is an independent state in reality but unrecognised in law. In January 2024 Somaliland signed an agreement with Ethiopia which would give that country access to the sea via a 19km strip of coastline near the port of Berbera. In return Ethiopia would recognise Somaliland's statehood. This met with a storm of protest from Somalia. When the final votes had been counted Abdirahman Abdilahi had won 64% with Muse Abdi getting 35%. Another change of government at the ballot box in Africa - three in one year!

November 10 - Mauritius  - the ruling Militant Socialist Movement is seeking to retain power and offer its leader Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth a second five year term. Jugnauth won by a wide margin in 2019. His main opponent is Navin Ramgoolam of the Labour Party who heads up the Progressive Alliance for Change, who is a former prime minister and son of Mauritius's first leader. More than one million Mauritians are registered to vote in this the 12th legislative election since gaining independence from the UK in 1968. In October Mauritius dropped from first to second place on the Ibrahim Index which assesses governance across Africa. When the votes had been counted the Progressive Alliance for Change had amassed 63% to the 28% for Lepep meaning that Navin Ramgoolam is again back in power. This translates in to winning 60 out of 64 seats in parliament. Turnout was 80%. 

October 30 - Botswana - President Mokgweeti Masisi (63) took power from his predecessor Lt General Dr Ian Khama, after serving two terms, in October 2019. Khama went abroad. However, he has now returned after three years of self-imposed exile to campaign for the opposition but faces charges of money laundering and owning illegal firearms. The Botswana parliament has 63 seats of which 57 are filled through direct voting whilst four are reserved for the majority party whilst the president and the attorney-general are ex-officio members. Masisi of the Botswana Democratic Party is seeking a second and final term here. The BDP secured 38/57 in 2019. Other parties taking part are Umbrella for Democratic Change, Botswana Congress Party and Botswana Patriotic Front which Khama is now supporting. The BDP has held power since independence in 1966. When the result was announced the unthinkable had happened for the BDP, in power since independence in 1966, won only 4 parliamentary seats. Meanwhile the UDC under Duma Boko, a 54 year old former human rights lawyer, had won 35 seats giving it a majority in parliament. The BCP won 14 seats with the Khama supported BPF garnering 5. This is only the 32nd time a ruling party has been defeated in a leadership election since independence swept over the continent some 60 years ago and came as a colossal shock to Africa watchers. For more governments are shown the door in Africa these days in military coups than at the ballot box.

October 9 - Mozambique - President Filipe Jacinto Nyusi must stand down here after serving two full terms for Frelimo, the party of government. In his place Frelimo  has chosen its youngest ever candidate for the presidency. He is Daniel Chapo aged 47 who has been Governor of Inhambane Province since 2016. In government since 1974 Nyusi secured 73% of the vote at the last election. Representing the main opposition party Renamo will be Ossufo Momade whilst the only other two candidates for president are Lutero Simango of the MDM and Venancio Mondlane who is running for the PODEMOS party. More than 17m voters are registered to vote here on the  day. Going into this election the country faces a severe debt problem that threatens its economic stability and development prospects. However, it will be a seismic shock if Frelimo doesn't continue in power. Living standards, spiralling debt and insurgency in northern Cabo Delgado province are dominating campaigning. Despite the excitement generated by Mondlane claiming to have won the contest ahead of the official result some 2 weeks after the vote, the electoral commission gave the final vote as 71% for Chapo and Frelimo with Mondlane and Podemos coming in second with 20%. Momade and Renamo received just 6%. Turnout was 43%.

October 6 - Tunisia - President Kais Saied has announced his intention to fight in this poll and should therefore confirm another 5 years as president for opponents all seem to be languishing in jail or under investigation and therefore cannot stand. Former health minister Abdellatif Mekki has been gagged, Ennahda Party leader Rached Ghannouchi and Free Destourian Party president Abir Moussi are in prison whilst Ghazi Chaouachi leader of Democratic Current and Noureddine Bhiri a former justice minister are amongst those who have been arrested and detained. The only two candidates allowed to stand against Saied are Ayachi Zammel, a little-known businessman who has just been convicted of forgery and sentenced to 20 months in prison, and Zouhair Maghzaoui of the pan-Arab left-wing People's Movement, but who is said to be close to Mr Saied. For many Tunisians it is the failure of Saied's economic policies, massive job losses and high inflation that rankles most. In a free election Saied would surely stand no chance. Hard to believe that the Arab Spring started here in 2012 which should have brought in a new dawn but has been well and truly smothered. Only 10% of the electorate bothered to vote in parliamentary election in 2022. When the dust settled Saied had 'miraculously' garnered 90.7% of the votes cast on a turnout of 28.8%. Languishing in prison Zammel came second with 7%. Just why bother with elections in Africa because only on 31 occasions since independence swept across the land continent in the 1960s has a ruling party been defeated in a leadership election across 48 countries!

September 7 - Algeria - President Abdelmajdid Tebboune will stand again for a second 5 year term. Other candidates putting themselves forward for approval by the Electoral Authority are Abdelali Hassani Cherif from the Movement of Society for Peace and Youssef Aouchiche, First Secretary of the Socialist Forces Front. Saida Neghza, a businesswoman and President of the National Confederation of Employers along with 12 other candidates were rejected. In 2019 Tebboune succeeded with 58% of the votes cast on a turnout of 40%. When the count was complete the Electoral Authority in Algiers felt no embarrassment whatsoever in announcing that Tebboune had amassed 95% of the vote! Cherif secured 3% and Aouchiche 2%. Turnout 48%. Why did they bother?

July 15 - Rwanda - Paul Kagame secured more than 90% of the votes in presidential elections in 2003, 2010 and 2017 and there is no way that he will not be 'elected' in again for seven more years. Diane Rwigara, a fierce critic of Kagame, has again been barred from the contest leaving two other politicians, Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party and independent Philippe Mpayimana as the only challengers. These two were also the only 2 challengers permitted in 2017 when Kagame won garnering nearly 99% of the vote. On a turnout of 98% of the 9.5m people eligible to vote Kagame garnered 99.15% this time. Such appreciation. Second was Frank Habineza with 0.53% followed by Philippe Mpayimana with just 0.32%. So another 7 years secured for Kagame.

June 29 - Mauritania - President Mohamed Ghazouani (67) of the Union pour la Republique party will run a for a second and final term in this election and will face again his main opponent from the last election anti-slavery activist Biram Abeid. Five other candidates are vying to be the next president. In the last election Ghazouani secured 52% of the vote. If no candidate wins 50% of the vote a second round will take place on 14 July. Mauritania achieved independence from France in 1960 and the first president held power for 18 years before being ousted in a military coup. More coups followed in 1984, 2005 and 2008. Slavery still exists big time in Mauritania even though it was banned 35 years ago. When the results were announced Ghazouani had amassed 56% of the vote ahead of Abeid with 22% with Hamadi Siti el-Mokhtar  coming in third with 13%. Turnout was 55% Both Abeid and el-Mokhtar refused to accept the result.

May 29 - South  Africa - President Cyril Ramaphosa seeks a second term. South Africans don't vote directly for a president, but rather decide the make-up of parliament, which is called the National Assembly. They do this by choosing parties and those parties get seats in parliament according to their share of the national vote. The 400-member National Assembly then elects a president. In the 2018 election the African National Congress won 57% of the vote ahead of the Democratic Alliance with 22% and the Economic Freedom Fighters with 10%. Since 1994, the time of the first all-race election, the ANC has always governed the country. Recent opinion polls, however, suggest the ANC is now polling under 50%. Some 70 parties are registered for the vote, the most ever, and independent candidates will be permitted to stand for the first time. The main opposition party is the centrist Democratic Alliance which has recently entered in to an agreement with some smaller parties in the hope that they will run the ANC close. The far-left Economic Freedom Fighters is the third largest party led by Julius Malema, a fiery former ANC youth leader. Also in the mix is the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) (Spear of the Nation) party formed by former president Jacob Zuma (82) who is currently standing trial on corruption issues. He was not allowed to stand personally but his party was. With high unemployment, daily outages in electricity and crime on the increase the days of the ANC running the country as its personal fiefdom are surely drawing to a close. When the results were announced it was worse than expected for the ANC scoring just 40% of the votes cast. The Democratic Alliance received 22% , the same as in the previous election, whilst the EFF were awarded 11%, also the same as the last election. The MK Party of Jacob Zuma, surprisingly for some, amassed 14% but has indicated that it will not form a government with the ANC as long as Cyril Ramaphosa is in charge. In terms of seats won: ANC 159; DA 87; MK 58; EFF 39; Others 57.

May 6 - Chad - with any run-off June 22. In April 2021 President Idriss Deby won the presidential election with 79% of the vote ahead of former Prime Minister Albert Padacke with 10%. Shortly after the announcement Deby was killed on the frontline leading the fight against the Front for Change and Concord in Chad, a group formed by dissident army officers in 2016. A military council led by his son, General Mahamat Idriss Deby (37), took power after his death with the promise of democratic elections in 18 months. Mahamat Deby was duly sworn in as president promising fresh elections within 90 days. This, of course, didn't happen! Mahamat Deby has put himself forward to be elected president in this election. Also taking part is junta-appointed Prime Minster Succes Masra, who was a former opposition leader who at one time was in exile. Others in the opposition have criticised this move as a ploy to give the appearance of pluralism to an election Deby is almost certain to win. A run-off will be held on June 22 if necessary. When the result was declared Deby had coasted home with 61.3% of the vote legitimising his grip on power and meaning his family continues its 34 year rule. Masra was given just 18.5%. This oil-exporting country of nearly 18m people has not had a free and fair transfer of power since independence from France in 1960. However, Chad, you could say, has become the first country where the military has seized power in the greater area in recent years to hold elections in order to restore civilian rule.

April 29 - Togo - with a presidential election due in 2025 where he was not allowed to stand again, President Faure Gnassingbe changed the constitution to transfer executive power from the president, limited to a maximum of two terms, to the head of a council of ministers, not subject to term limits, and to be chosen by the largest party in parliament. Opponents argued that this was just a ploy to extend his family's six decade rule. With all the votes counted Gnassingbe's Union pour la Republique scored 108 seats in parliament out of a total of 113. This should allow Faure to stay in power for ever!.

March 24 - Senegal - (Originally February 25 and later postponed to December 15 owing to a presidential decree questioning the eligibility of some of the candidates. However, the Constitutional Court annulled the decree  meaning that the election must be held by April 2.) Having served a maximum of two terms as president Macky Sall is stepping down voluntarily. He will support his Prime Minister Amadou Ba, 62, who is considered a competent technocrat. Leading the opposition campaign will be Ousmane Sonko who, with  Bassirou Faye, have just been released from prison. Faye, 44, who will represent Mr Sonko's Pastef Party will stand in this election even though time is short for him to mount a viable campaign. Former president Abdoulaye Wade and his OPDS party is intending to support  Mr Faye. Also taking apart are Khalifa Sall, a former mayor of Dakar along with Idrissa Seck, a former prime minister whilst the first female candidate for a decade Anta Babacar Ngom will lead the ARC party. In all there are 17 candidates. If no one gains 50% of the vote in the first round a run-off will take place. When the results were finalised Bassirou Faye had become the next president of Senegal winning 54% of the vote ahead of Amadou Ba with 32%. One week before he had been in prison; seven days later he had been elected president and takes over on April 2. This is Africa. That just doesn't happen!

January 14 - Comoros - on 30 July 2018 there was an amendment to the constitution passed. This referendum, boycotted by the opposition, endorsed extending presidential term limits as well as abolishing the power-sharing system that had rotated the presidency every 5 years among the main islands of Grand Commore, Anjouan and Moheli. President Azali Assoumani from Grand Comore gained power under this power-sharing system in April 2016 and was due to serve 5 years as president until 2021. But the controversial changes to the constitution effectively allowed President Assoumani to remain in office for 8 years beyond his proper term. However, as a sop to the opposition, he agreed to bring forward the date of the next election to March, 2019. The opposition opposed this idea stating they had no time to prepare. However, the election went ahead with the result that Assoumani gathered 61% of the vote and will rule for another 5 years. His opponents declared that this election had been rigged and violence broke out across the archipelago. Assoumani has been cleared to run again by the Supreme Court. He will be up against 5 other candidates including former interior minister as well as Salim Issa, a medical doctor and flag bearer for Juwa, the party of ex-president Ahmed Sambi who was sentenced to life imprisonment for high treason in 2022. Some opposition supporters and leaders have vowed to boycott the poll because the electoral process lacks transparency and have demanded authorities unconditionally release Sambi. Assoumani, a former army officer, first came to power in a coup in 1999. He has since won three elections. If no one amasses 50% of the vote a run-off will take place on February 25. When the final outcome had been decided Assoumani received 63% of the votes cast. More than 330,000 people were registered to vote out of a population of 836,000. Opposition candidates alleged instances of ballot stuffing and that polls had closed early.  

BELOW ARE THE DETAILS OF THE ONLY 32 OCCASIONS, SINCE INDEPENDENCE, WHEN RULING PARTIES HAVE BEEN DEFEATED IN LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS ON THE LAND CONTINENT OF AFRICA WHICH CURRENTLY COMPRISES 48 COUNTRIES:-

1. 1967 SOMALIA Aden Abdullah Osman Daar was elected the country’s first president in 1960 after independence. In the presidential election in 1967 he was defeated by Abdirashid Ali Shermarke, his former prime minister, making him the first leader in Africa to peacefully hand over power to a democratically elected successor. And it was a long wait until the next time.

2. 1991 ZAMBIA Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia, after agreeing to multiparty elections, loses to Frederick Chiluba who won 80%+ of the vote. Kaunda had been in power since 1972.

3. 1991 BENIN Mathieu Kerekou defeated by Nicephore Soglo, a former World Bank official.

4. 1992 CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC - President Kolingba, under intense pressure from France, agreed to hold multiparty elections. But Kolingba refused to accept the result of this election in October where Ange-Felix Patasse seemed to have won with Kolingba last, and annulled it. But a year later the result was confirmed and Patasse was sworn in as president in 1993.

5. 1992 REPUBLIC OF CONGO Aug 1992. Pascal Lissouba defeated Bernard Kolelas in a second round of voting marking the end of the transitional period. In the first round Lissouba gained 36% v Kolelas with 20% and previous president Denis Sassou-Nguesso of the Congolese Party of Labour with 17%.

6. 1994 MALAWI - Hastings Banda finally seen off by Bakili Maluzi in Malawi.

7. 1996 - BENIN - saw Mathieu Kerekou regain power by defeating his rival Nicephore Soglo.

8. 2000 SENEGAL - Abdou Diouf lost to Abdoulaye Wade.

9. 2000 COTE D'IVOIRE - in a 1999 coup General Robert Guei came to power but in the subsequent poll his attempt to claim victory led to an uprising which carried the poll's victor, Laurent Gbagbo, to power.

10. 2000 Dec GHANA - after Jerry Rawlings, representing the New Democratic Congress (NDC), was obliged to step down after serving 2 x 4 years as president, John Kufuor of the New Patriotic Party defeated John Atta-Mills (NDC) in a run-off.

11. 2002 Apr/May MALI - with president Alpha Konare standing down after 10 years, Amadou Toure won a run-off against Soumaila Cisse by 64% to 36%. Cisse represented the previous ruling party ADEMA.

12. 2002 Dec KENYA - the Rainbow Coalition of Mwai Kibaki defeated the 24 year old regime of Daniel Arap Moi.

13. 2007 Aug/Sep SIERRA LEONE - Ernest Koroma of the All Peoples Congress defeated Vice-President Solomon Berewa of the Sierra Leone People's Party by 55% to 45% in a run-off to secure 5 years at the top.

14. 2008 Dec GHANA - John Atta Mills of the National Democratic Congress defeated Nana Akufo-Addo of the ruling New Patriotic Party in a run-off by the margin of 50.23% to 49.77%.

15. 2010 Nov/2011 Mar COTE D’IVOIRE - after a protracted battle for power Alessandre Ouattara defeated Laurent Gbagbo in the presidential election in Nov, 2010 and went on to defeat him again in the military field in order to become president in March, 2011.

16. 2011 Sep ZAMBIA - Michael Sata of the Patriotic Front took 43% of the vote and the presidency against Rupiah Banda (Movement for Multi-party Democracy MMD) 36% and Hakainde Hichilema Party for National Development with 21%.

17. 2012 Mar SENEGAL - Macky Sall takes 66% of the vote in a run-off with president Abdoulaye Wade to secure 5 years in power as president.

18. 2012 May LESOTHO - having broken away from the Lesotho Congress for Democracy to form his own party, the Ntsu Democratic Congress, Pakalitha Mosisili failed to gain a majority for his new party leaving the way open for the opposition All Basotha Convention (ABC) and LCD to combine to form the new government under the ABC's Thomas Thabane.

19. 2014 May MALAWI - despite claims of major irregularities and ballot rigging, Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party with 36% of the vote beat the incumbent, Joyce Banda (20%) of the People’s Party into third place to secure the presidency which his brother, Bingu wa Mutharika, had held until his death in 2012.

20. 2015 Feb LESOTHO - in a closely fought election Prime Minister Thomas Thabane of the All Basotha Convention lost out in this 'early' election gaining only 46 seats to former Prime Minister Pakalitha Mosisili and the Democratic Congress who got 47 seats. And with the support of the Lesotho Congress for Democracy and smaller parties Mosisili secured the premiership which he held between 1998 and 2012.

21. 2015 Mar NIGERIA - former miltary leader General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress defeats incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party by 15.4 million votes to 12.9 million. Buhari, president from 1983-5, united the opposition to forge a major single opposing party and along with security concerns over Boko Harem and widespread dissatisfaction with the PDP, romped home to a convincing vistory.

22. 2016 Mar BENIN - Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou taking over the mantle of leadership of the Forces Cauris party from retiring President Boni Yayi went down by 65% to 35% in a run-off against businessman Patrice Talon.

23. 2016 Dec GAMBIA - President Yahya Jammeh, in power since 1994, loses to a coalition of seven opposition parties under the leadership of property developer Adama Barrow. Barrow scored 43.3% of the votes cast to Jammeh's 39.6%.

24. 2016 Dec GHANA - opposition leader Nana Akufo-Addo, at the third attempt, won the presidency defeating John Mahama by 53.9% to 44.4%. Mahama, 72, was formerly a justice and foreign minister and a human rights lawyer. This marks the third time in 16 years that Ghana has changed its government.

25. 2017 Dec LIBERIA - with Ellen Johnson Sirleaf adhering to the constitution and stepping down after 2 terms, George Weah of the Coalition for Democratic Change defeats Vice-President Joseph Bokai of the governing Unity Party by 61.5% to 38.5% of the vote to become president.

26. 2018 Mar SIERRA ELONE - with Ernest Koroma keeping to the constitution and standing down after 2 terms, Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People's Party defeated Dr Samura Bio of the ruling All Peoples Congress Party in a run-off by 52% to 48%.

27. 2018 Dec DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO - with term limits preventing Joseph Kabila from entering this presidential election, the ruling party nominated Emmanuel Shadary to fight in his place. He came third in the poll behind the winner Felix Tshisekedi who won with 39% of the vote ahead of Martin Fayulu with 35%. First time power changed hands democratically in the DRC. But with Kabila's political coalition winning a decisive majority in parliament he now has the power to 'control' his successor and is doing so! It is estimated that Fayulu actually won 60% of the vote here.

28. 2020 Jun - MALAWI - after the constitutional court annulled the result of the disputed 2019 presidential poll because of irregularities, in the rerun, Lazarus Chakwera of the Malawi Congress Party came back from the dead to defeat President Peter Mutharika of the Democratic Progressive Party by winning 59% of the votes cast against 39%.

29. 2021 Aug - ZAMBIA - Hakainde Hichilema of the United Party for National Developmnt convincingly defeats Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front winning 2.8m votes against 1.8m for his rival. This was Hichilema's 6th attempt at winning the presidency.

30. 2023 Nov - LIBERIA - president George Weah is defeated by Joseph Boakai in a run-off election scoring 49.11% of the vote against 50.89% for the winner.

31. 2024 March - SENEGAL - Bassirou Faye of PASTEF, who had been a prisoner until 7 days before, overcame Amadou Faye of the Alliance for the Republic Party who was PM to President Macky Sall. Sall had to step down after two terms in office.

32. 2024 October - BOTSWANA - in power since 1966 the Botswana Democratic Party was swept from power by Duma Boko, a 54 year old human rights lawyer, and his Umbrella for Democratic Change winning 35 seats in the 63 seat parliament.

COUNTRY - LEADER - TOOK POWER - LAST ELECTION - NEXT ELECTION

as at April 2024.

ALGERIA - Abdelmadjid Tebboune - 12/2019 - 12/2019 - 12/2024

ANGOLA - Joao Lourenco - 08/2017 - 08/2022 - 08/2027  final term

BENIN - Patrice Talon - 03/2016 - 04/2021 - 04/2026

BOTSWANA - Mokgweetsi Masisi - 04/2018 - 10/2019 - 10/2024

BURKINA FASO - Roch Kabore - 11/2015 - 11/2020 - 11/2025

overthrown in coup on 24/1/2022 by Lt-Col Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba. Then on 30/9/2022 Captain Ibrahim Traore, thought to be supported by the Russian-influended Wagner Group, mounted another coup overthrowing Damiba. Election promised for 2024.

BURUNDI - Evariste Ndayishimiye - 05/2020 - 05/2020 - 05/2027

CAMEROON - Paul Biya - 11/1982 - 10/2018 - 10/2025

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS - Ulisses da Silva - 03/2016 - 04/2021 - 04/2026

CENTRAL AFRICAN REP. - Faustin Touadera - 02/2016 - 12/2020- 12/2025

CHAD - Idris Deby - 12/1990 - 04/2016 - 04/2021 died day after winning election
Son General Mahamat Deby head of military council until elections 10/2024

COMOROS - Azali Assoumani - 04/2016 - 01/24 - 01/2029

CONGO REP. - Denis Sassou-Nuguesso - 10/1997 - 03/2021 - 03/2026

COTE D'IVOIRE - Alassane Ouattara - 11/2010 - 10/2020 - 10/2025

DEMOCRATIC REP. OF CONGO - Felix Tshisekedi - 12/2018 - 12/2023 - 12/2028

DJIBOUTI - Ismail Guelleh - 04/1999 - 04/2021 - 04/2026

EGYPT - Abdel Fatah Khalil el Sisi - 05/2014 - 12/2023 - 12/2029

EQUATORIAL GUINEA - Obiang Nguema - 08/1979 - 11/2022 - 11/2029

ERITREA - Afewerki Isaias - 06/1993 - no elections

ESWATINI (formerly SWAZILAND) - King Mswati III - 04/1986 - no elections

ETHIOPIA - Abiy Ahmed (PM) - 04/2018 - 06/2021 - 06/2026
(at 43 the youngest leader in Africa and Nobel Peace Prize winner 2019)

GABON - Ali Bongo - 08/2009 - 08/2016 - 08/2023: overthrown in a military coup in 8/2023 by General Brice Oligui Nguema after disputed presidential election that saw Bongo amass 64% of the vote. Has promised elections 08/2025.

GAMBIA - Adama Barrow 12/2016 - 12/2021- 12/2026

GHANA - Nan Akufo-Addo - 12/2016 - 12/2020 - 12/2024

GUINEA - Alpha Conde - 11/2010 - 10/2020 - 10/2025
Removed in a coup by Col. Mamady Doumbouya on September 5, 2021. Elections scheduled by 5/2025.

GUINEA-BISSAU - Umaro Embalo - 12/2019 - 12/2019 - 11/2024

KENYA - William Ruto - 08/2022 - 08/2022 - 08/2027

LESOTHO - Samuel Matekane - 10/2022 - 10/2022 - 10/2027

LIBERIA - Joseph Boakai - 11/2023 - 11/2023 - 11/2029

LIBYA - civil war has engulfed the country since Muammar Gaddafi was deposed in 2011. Until elections in December, Mohamed Menfi, former ambassador to Greece, will head the presidency whilst Abdul Dbeibah, a businessman from Misrata, has been appointed PM in a National Unity Government. Neither is supposed to contest the election.

MADAGASCAR - Andry Rajoelina - 01/2019 - 11/2023 - 11/2028

MALAWI - Lazarus Chakwera - 06/2020 - 06/2020 - 06/2025

MALI - Ibrahim Keita - 08/2013 - 07/2018 - 08/2023: overthrown 8/2020:
Military transitional government with former defence minister Bah Ndaw appointed president. A further coup in 05/2021 brought junta leader Col Assimi Goita to power sacking Bah Ndaw. Elections promised by 3/2024.

MAURITANIA - Mohamed Ghazouani - 06/2019 - 06/2019 - 06/2024

MAURITIUS - Pravind Jugnauth - 1/2017 - 11/2019 - 11/2024

MOROCCO - King Mohamed VI - 07/1999 - no elections

MOZAMBIQUE - Filipe Jacinto Nyusi - 10/2014 - 10/2019 - 10/2024*

NAMIBIA - Hage Geingob - 11/2014 - 11/2019 - 11/2024 (died 2/2024)

Vice-president Nangola Mbumba sworn in until election

NIGER - Mohamed Bazoum - 02/2021 - 02/2021 - 02/2026: overthrown in military coup 7/2023 by General Abdourahmane Tchiani due to problems including security, economic woes and corruption. Coup roundly condemned by AU/ECOWAS/EU/UN. Election 01/02/26

NIGERIA - Bola Ahmed Tinubu - 05/2023 - 02/2023 - 02/2027

RWANDA - Paul Kagame - 2000 - 08/2017 - 08/2024

SAO TOME/PRINCIPE - Carlos Vila Nova - 08/2021 - 08/2021 - 08/2026

SENEGAL - Bassirou Faye - 04/2024 - 04/2024 - 03/2029

SEYCHELLES - Wavel Ramkalawan - 10/2020 - 10/2020 - 10/2025

SIERRA LEONE - Julius Maada Bio- 04/2018 - 06/23 - 06/28

SOMALIA - Hassan Sheikh Mohamud 06/2022 - 06/2022 - 06/2026

(Somaliland - Muse Bihi Abdi - 11/2017 - 11/2017 - 11/2022)

(Puntland) - Saed Abdullahi Deni - 1/2019 - 01/2024 - 01/2029)

SOUTH AFRICA - Cyril Ramaphosa- 12/2017 - 05/2019 - 05/2024

SOUTH SUDAN - Salva Kir - 07/2011 -07/2011 - 07/2018
Civil war broke out causing next election to be delayed. Now planned to be held in 2024.

SUDAN - a transitional government made up of the military and the Forces of Freedom and Change for 3 years from 08/2019. Interim prime minister - Abdalla Hamdok. After street protests about the pace of change a coup attempt in October 2021 by Gen. Abdel Fattah Burhan still promises to stick to the transition to civilian rule with elections planned for July 2023. But before that could happen civil war broke out in April between the army led by Burhan and the Rapid Support Force led by Gen Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. This continues today.

TANZANIA - Ms Samia Suluhu Hassan - 03/2021 - 10/2020 - 10/2025
on the death of President John Magafuli

TOGO - Faure Gnassingbe - 04/2005 - 02/2020 - 02/2025

TUNISIA - Kais Saied - 10/2019 - 10/2019 - 10/2024

UGANDA - Yoweri Museveni - 01/1986 - 01/2021 - 01/2026

WESTERN SAHARA (SAHRAWI ARAB DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC) (government in exile) - Brahim Ghali - 07/2016 - no elections. Currently mostly annexed by Morocco.

ZAMBIA - Hakainde Hichilema - 08/2021 - 08/2021 - 08/2026

ZIMBABWE - Emmerson Mnangagwa - 11/2017 - 07/2023 - 07/2028

*final term

just1WORLD's groundbreaking league table on governance shows how all national governments across the world (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) compare in terms of laying the vital foundations for their people to advance.

As far as can be ascertained no international body produces a league table that lays bare what is required of governments around the world in laying the groundwork for their peoples to move forward. The World Bank Governance Indicators rank 215 countries in order in 6 different disciplines - Voice and Accountability, Political Stability, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption - but does not give actual scores nor produce an aggregate total league table. This is shameful for this glaring omission does feckless governments no favours allowing them to escape responsibility for their poverty of aspiration. It also means that people in poor countries continue to struggle lacking proper support in their quest to escape the yoke of poverty. So, for just1WORLD, it is time to forget political posturing around the subject and to expose the performance of every government on the planet so that inept, rapacious and oppressive governance can be brought to light. Now the world at large, including international charities and poverty campaigners, can see exactly where hapless governance lies and, hopefully, start to apply meaningful pressure for reform. For in order to Make Poverty History improving governance is fundamental.

Adam Smith, the father of economics, in his magnum opus 'An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations', published in 1776, states that there are two distinct objects of political economy: the FIRST is to enable people to provide revenue for themselves and the SECOND is to supply the country with resources for public services. In order to obtain the second, without recourse to continual borrowing, the first must be achieved.

Giving people the tools to make the most of their lives is essential and there can no longer be any excuse for not doing so. For, according to former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, 'as a result of the experience of the last 50 years in global governance there is ample evidence from around the world as to what works and what doesn't. The tough part is not knowing what to do, but doing it.'

And 'doing it' is what underpinned the incredible successes of the Asian 'tigers', Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, in the last half century. However, shamefully, today far too many governments in developing countries still appear unwilling or unable to enact legislation which would lay the basis for their people to gain economic and social traction. Meanwhile, in the industrialised world - western governments, multilateral organisations (e.g. World Bank, IMF, etc.), international NGOs (e.g. Oxfam, Christian Aid, etc.) churches, Comic Relief and even pop stars - sit on the sidelines, looking the other way, either for fear of being accused of arrogance, racism or neo-colonialism, if they interfere, or because it is just too politically sensitive an issue. All of the above entities generously invest much time, experience and, above all, money in trying to alleviate pockets of poverty across the world but if they started to prioritise governance their efforts could soon see exponential change supercharging development where it currently is lacking.

Today the No 1 priority for any government of an impoverished country has to be to confront 'corruption.' Left unchecked corruption chokes progress by constantly gnawing away at the very heart of development. Corruption also seriously undermines confidence in institutions, undercuts the state's ability to raise revenues, leads to higher taxes, picks people's pockets, poisons human relations, paralyses initiative, discourages investment in new enterprises, encourages dealings in the 'black market' and promotes conflict. And, as such, we make no apology for giving corruption the greatest weight in our World Governance Table.

Also important is for governments to put in place actions which will underpin business activity and economic advancement. This requires building up institutions, adherence to the rule of law, upholding contracts, fair and simple taxation, ease in setting up businesses, encouraging self discipline and permitting people to own their own land. All this comes under the banner 'economic freedom' and we give this the next greatest weight in the table.

However, political rights, civil liberties and freedom of the media are also valuable and help create a virtuous circle for socio-economic progress throughout the land and they, too, are included.

In time, adoption of the above goals in developing countries will start to lead to higher living standards and to increased revenues being generated through taxation for investment in schools, hospitals, welfare and infrastructure. And the cost of implementing these reforms is minimal. So governments everywhere have absolutely no excuse for not carrying through these kind of constructive reforms and failure to do so should no longer be accepted by western governments, international financial institutions and poverty campaigners.

Our world league table on governance, like the just1WORLD 'Table of Truth' (see 'Recommendations'), again uses the information contained in FOUR* respected international surveys. However, this time, we have given different weights to the four components in order to prioritise various aspects. Firstly, as mentioned above, if any government is serious about advancing the lives of its people that government must firstly deal with the evil of corruption. Next, taking a lead and working to create a robust economy must also be a priority.

Bearing this in mind we have given 'corruption perceptions' the highest weight and have multiplied each country's score in that discipline by 4; next, encouraging 'economic freedom' is also essential so we have multiplied this score by 3; political rights/civil liberties are also important and we times this score by 2 and media freedom we leave x 1. (with these weights in place the final score for each country is the average out of 10) So like all good tables ours has 4 legs!

WORLD GOVERNANCE TABLE

'THE MERITORIOUS, THE MODERATE, THE MEDIOCRE AND THE MONSTROUS'

The league table above indicates the current state of play regarding governance in all of the world's countries where scores range in 2021 from 8.75 down to 0.88. The average score of 5.31 in 2021, marginally up from 5.15 in 2002, shows that progress is slow and painful and falls far short of what should be expected. (Interestingly countries in the top decile have declined in the ratio of 9:1 2021/2002)

It also notable that only 107 out of 196 states score 5.0 or more which means that 89 governments are fundamentally failing their people - some grossly.

Merit lies with the 16 countries scoring 8 or more and almost all of them are the usual suspects with New Zealand heading the list with 8.75/10.00 followed closely by Switzerland 8.65, Denmark 8.64 and Finland 8.60.

There are another 23 countries which score between 7 and 8 including Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Barbados, Micronesia, Bahamas, Antigua/Barbuda and Costa Rica. It is also encouraging to see here 4 former Communist countries - Estonia, Lithuania, Czech Republic and Slovenia - which have successfully made the transformation to social justice and market economies. Spain has now joined this group too!

It is also promising to find 5 African nations scoring between 6 and 7 - Mauritius, Botswana, Cape Verde, Seychelles and Namibia - although 3 of them are island nations which lie some way off the coast of Africa. But what is Italy 6.51 doing down here? However, Greece has now stepped up into this group with a score of 6.09 after 5.89 in 2017 and 5.61 in 2015.

Countries with scores between 5 and 6 include South Africa 5.73, Hungary 5.70, India 5.34 and Brazil 5.13.

Trawling below the halfway mark we find both China 3.77 and Russia 3.52 although both countries have improved their scores, 3.35 and 3.20 respectively, 2019/2015. But both countries can do better still.

18 nations (19 in 2017 and 23 in 2015) score 3 or less and they represent almost an underworld, where the lack of concern by governments perpetuates their people in poverty, conflict, misery and ignorance. Here, too, in this list of failed states, are to be found countries with a wealth of natural resources which are being continuously plundered by their rulers and western corporations. If the leaders of these countries were running for public office in the west they would have been voted out years ago.

In the case of Somalia this broken state has experimented with various presidents and prime ministers to try to put this clan-ridden country back together again but all have failed to deliver. An African Union peacekeeping force is employed here to tackle the scourge of al-Shabaab but again without much success. The situation vis-a-vis Greater Somalia, too, needs addressing. Somaliland in the north has shown itself an effective unit and should surely be granted nation status. Puntland, too, seems to be making something of itself and could be given recognition if requested. That leaves Somalia itself where warlords vie with each other for power and patronage while poverty engulfs the majority throwing many areas into the arms of al-Shabaab. And no wonder - what have they got to lose?  After 30 wasted years it is surely time for pragmatism here and an approach that tries to bring al-Shabaab into a government of politicians/technocrats with ability, integrity and drive where the focus is on improving the lot of the people.

At the same time there is a whole swathe of nations across the Sahel where multidimensional poverty is excruciatingly pervasive. Here are some of the world's poorest people living in 15th century conditions where it is little wonder that the military has now taken over in Sudan, Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso whilst in the Central African Republic the Russian Wagner Group keeps the government in power. At the same time the giant of Nigeria sees 73% of its people indicating that they would be happy to leave for a better life if they could. Yet no international body seems to care. And coupled with problems in so many other parts of the world an increasing armada of boat people will continue to seek solace in the west. After all what have they got to lose as they struggle on daily leading life on the edge.

Overall, this league table helps explain exactly why the people of so many countries are today still living under feckless governments. For administrations in these poorly performing nations, whilst gorging themselves on state funds, seem anaesthetised to raising the bar in the areas of corruption and economic development which would help generate the necessary funds for infrastructure, education and welfare support. It can also be said that regimes here through nepotism - where family and friends are favoured for government positions - are not employing the brightest and best people at the top. And as long as this is the case the lack of progress in those two areas will always prevent solid and construtive advances.

At the same time, it is reprehensible for rich countries, international NGOs, poverty campaigners and bodies like the UN, World Bank and IMF not to challenge fourth-rate regimes in these vital areas in an attempt to finally try to Make Poverty History. And through this unforgiveable lack of action we in the West can be accused of being culpable of perpetuating people in penury and we all really ought to feel ashamed!